{"text":[[{"start":6.05,"text":"The ripple effects of the Iran war come at an unfortunate moment for developing nations. Before the US and Israel began attacks on Tehran in late February, optimism was growing about the emerging world’s resilience, albeit with a few exceptions. Despite rising American tariffs, and the scars of the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine conflict, economic growth and stock markets across the broad group of nations had been surprisingly sturdy. Timely reforms and prudent fiscal and monetary policies had helped. The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz now threatens that hard-fought progress."}],[{"start":43.25,"text":"The crisis in the Middle East is a triple whammy for poorer nations. First, it is harder for the net energy importers among them to compete on global markets for tightening supplies of oil and gas. Many also lack renewable alternatives. From Ethiopia to Tuvalu, fuel shortages are spreading. Next, disruption to food supplies and fertiliser — of which a third of the world’s seaborne trade passes through the strait — increases the risk of malnourishment in countries where agricultural yields have already been hit by climate shocks. If the conflict persists until June, 45mn more people could be pushed into acute hunger, the UN estimates. "}],[{"start":83.5,"text":"Lastly, foreign workers in the Gulf send home over $100bn in earnings every year. Many expats are returning home as it is unclear when economic activity in the region will revert to normal. South Asian nations, Egypt and the Philippines are particularly exposed to weaker remittance flows. Across all three shocks, Bangladesh looks uniquely vulnerable. "}],[{"start":105.8,"text":"The disproportionate impact of the war on poorer nations was reinforced by the IMF’s updated economic forecasts this month. It cut growth projections for emerging and developing economies by 0.3 percentage points this year, while the outlook for advanced economies as a whole was left unchanged. The UN’s development chief on Thursday added that even if the war stopped “tomorrow” more than 30mn people would be pushed back into poverty by its effects so far. "}],[{"start":135.5,"text":"The longer the conflict goes on, the deeper the economic and humanitarian fallout will be. In the interim, policymakers in developing countries can only eat into the dwindling stockpiles they have. Few will have the fiscal wriggle room to provide adequate support to households running low on food and cooking gas cylinders. For measure, over a third of sub-Saharan countries are at high risk of, or already in, debt distress. "}],[{"start":163.05,"text":"A recent pullback in foreign aid from the US and other advanced economies also means the financial buffers available to developing nations are smaller than in recent crises. Richer nations ought to have the wherewithal to provide support for the poorest, but are firmly focused on providing domestic economic support, securing fossil fuel shipments and stockpiling fertiliser and food. That means the IMF and World Bank should stand ready to provide liquidity support, and urge richer economies to avoid export bans on food and fertilisers."}],[{"start":195.95000000000002,"text":"A protected corridor in the strait to enable the flow of food and fertiliser — similar to a UN arrangement deployed in the Black Sea in the Ukraine conflict — would provide essential relief. But efforts on such a plan, backed by EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, seem to have made little headway so far. Others should take up the call."}],[{"start":215.9,"text":"The fastest way to prevent widespread suffering still rests on the narrow path to a ceasefire, and a speedy restoration of shipping in the strait. Failing that, unless wealthier countries are prepared to act, the global costs of the conflict will continue to fall hardest on those least able to bear them."}],[{"start":239.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1777200394_7183.mp3"}