{"text":[[{"start":5.5,"text":"The US and Iran seemed to be making progress on Monday towards a deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz after three months of oil and gas flows being reduced to a trickle. Though stockpiles and other measures have partly offset the squeeze so far, JPMorgan had warned that, at current drawdown rates, without a deal commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by June. Yet even if the strait reopens, energy flows will take months to normalise, and governments will still face tricky trade-offs and the potential need to impose curbs on fuel demand."}],[{"start":38.5,"text":"Whenever it starts to reopen, resuming supplies through the strait is not a case of flicking a switch. With no export ability, many oilfields were fully “shut in”; S&P Global estimates that some could take seven months to restart. Some resumed oil flows will have to go into rebuilding reserves. Some liquefied natural gas facilities, meanwhile, have been damaged and need repairing."}],[{"start":62.2,"text":"Roughly 2,000 ships stranded in the Gulf will need to reposition and offload cargoes. Sultan al-Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, has said it will take at least four months for traffic volumes through the strait to recover to 80 per cent of prewar levels, with full normalisation hard before the first half of 2027. Demining will take months."}],[{"start":82.05000000000001,"text":"Supplies of crude, LNG and many refined products could, then, remain tight until late in the year. What is the best approach for governments to conserve energy? The most efficient is, as far as practicable, to let market forces run their course. High fuel prices encourage consumers to use less energy and switch sources. In Europe, for example, electric vehicle sales surged to a record high in March. Politicians are under pressure, however, to provide some cost of living support."}],[{"start":110.45000000000002,"text":"The most common government responses so far have been price caps and reductions in energy taxes. Britain’s chancellor Rachel Reeves last week scrapped a planned increase in fuel duty but was given short shrift by food retailers that she tried to cajole into “voluntary” price freezes on essential goods. Such policies risk making shortages more likely. Direct support to the most vulnerable is a wiser way to avoid drowning out price signals and straining public finances."}],[{"start":138.15,"text":"Either way, efforts are still needed to bear down on fuel demand. Awareness campaigns can help at the margin. Last month the Australian government launched a $20mn ad series urging drivers to empty their boots, pump up tyres and remove roof racks to use less fuel. Many Asian nations have already advised or mandated working from home to ease fuel usage in commuting, though this may not be appropriate for all sectors. Those who must commute can be incentivised to use public transport and carpooling. Pakistan has reduced speed limits on motorways and national highways. Businesses could help by limiting air travel for work to ease pressure on jet fuel."}],[{"start":179.15,"text":"Since industry accounts for about a fifth of worldwide oil demand, governments should encourage factories to shift, whenever they can, to the most available feedstocks — for instance to conserve liquefied petroleum gas for essential domestic uses. Argentina has tweaked rules to allow higher ethanol content in gasoline blends. Encouraging companies to shut down non-essential processes and support to fix leaks can help too. Air conditioning is a significant drain on energy; Jordan has banned it in government offices."}],[{"start":208.1,"text":"High energy prices and initiatives to slash fuel use are not popular. But until supplies normalise, the risk of shortages leaves governments with few painless options. It is in many cases, after all, the price of failing to invest adequately in energy security and the green transition in the first place."}],[{"start":232.7,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1779762677_1158.mp3"}