What Andy Burnham now needs to do to become prime minister

{"text":[[{"start":7.85,"text":"Before the dust has even settled on Andy Burnham’s victory in the Makerfield by-election, attention is turning to how he might oust Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister."}],[{"start":18.299999999999997,"text":"The catch is that none of the major players want to move first. Burnham’s team is insistent that he does not want to be the one who wields the knife. His principal hope is that the prime minister cedes to pressure and graciously announces a schedule for his departure. "}],[{"start":32.75,"text":"Starmer has said he has the infrastructure and determination to fight any challenger."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":38.25,"text":"Amid this stand-off, Starmer’s premiership could fall apart within days or drag on for several months."}],[{"start":44.35,"text":"How could this Labour leadership challenge start? "}],[{"start":47.45,"text":"An official revolt against a sitting prime minister has never taken place in Labour’s 126-year history. Sir Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, the preceding Labour prime ministers, both stepped aside under intense pressure from MPs before formal rebellions were launched. Many observers argue that Starmer will yield under similar circumstances."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":68.80000000000001,"text":"Burnham’s supporters are discussing moves to heap pressure on Starmer to bow out gracefully — including the idea of a public letter by Labour parliamentarians calling on the prime minister to go. There could also be a spate of ministerial resignations starting next week."}],[{"start":84.45000000000002,"text":"The Institute for Government think-tank made the unusual move this week of issuing a recommendation for Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure. "}],[{"start":93.45000000000002,"text":"“The worst scenario for the coming weeks would be a prime minister clinging to power actively trying to make life difficult for his successor, followed by an eager but unprepared and incoherent team rushing into office and making a mess of their most important early days,” the IFG’s Hannah White and Alex Thomas wrote."}],[{"start":112.65000000000002,"text":"What if Starmer does not stand down?"}],[{"start":116.25000000000001,"text":"To oust a sitting Labour leader, a challenger must secure nominations from 20 per cent of the party’s MPs — currently equating to 81. Other candidates are then also able to enter the contest so long as they also have 81 backers."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":131.3,"text":"Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, has signalled that he is prepared to trigger a leadership contest as early as next week. He is adamant that he has the supporters required — although others are sceptical."}],[{"start":144.95000000000002,"text":"Starmer, as the incumbent, would not be required to obtain 81 nominations if he wishes to stand."}],[{"start":151.4,"text":"Once a candidate has met the criteria to launch a challenge, they enter a process overseen by the party’s ruling body, the National Executive Committee (NEC)."}],[{"start":161.35,"text":"Who gets to choose the new leader? "}],[{"start":163.85,"text":"If Starmer doesn’t run, and Burnham is the only challenger to obtain 81 nominations, then Burnham becomes Labour leader."}],[{"start":172.04999999999998,"text":"If Starmer does run, then party members vote on him and any challengers. They can override MPs’ preferences, as they did in electing Jeremy Corbyn. "}],[{"start":182.04999999999998,"text":"The electorate is made up of Labour’s members, whose number has fallen below 250,000, according to people briefed on the matter, and “affiliated members”, members of trade unions and other socialist societies that are affiliated to Labour. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":196.45,"text":"Turnout among affiliated members tends to be lower, but it can still be decisive: in 2010, Ed Miliband was elected leader, thanks to the support of affiliated members, even though he received fewer votes than his brother David from MPs and party members. "}],[{"start":213,"text":"Labour leadership elections use the alternative vote system, where voters rank candidates in order of preference. A candidate who secures more than half of all votes wins outright. Otherwise the last-placed candidate is eliminated and their votes are passed on to the voters’ next preferences. The process repeats until one candidate crosses the 50 per cent mark. "}],[{"start":235.5,"text":"How long will the process take? "}],[{"start":238.1,"text":"Once a contest is triggered, the NEC sets the schedule. A person close to the NEC said the campaign would likely take around 12 weeks. "}],[{"start":247.45,"text":"That would include around one week for MPs to nominate their candidates, one month for constituency Labour parties and unions to nominate their candidates, and six weeks for a ballot of members. "}],[{"start":258.3,"text":"If a contest were triggered soon, a new leader could be elected in time for Labour’s annual conference in late September. "}],[{"start":265.3,"text":"A contest could be completed much faster if there were one clear favourite and other candidates dropped their campaigns. "}],[{"start":273.15000000000003,"text":"The intense speculation about Starmer’s future has already created an atmosphere of uncertainty on Whitehall and distraction among ministers, according to officials.  "}],[{"start":283.70000000000005,"text":"The Cabinet Office has privately drawn up advice urging ministers to “observe discretion” over long-term decision-making if a race is triggered."}],[{"start":298.1500000000001,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781852977_5142.mp3"}