How Russia’s new drones are changing the air war

{"text":[[{"start":8.44,"text":"One hit Ukraine’s security service headquarters — the first direct drone strike on a government building in Kyiv. Another nearly struck President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s plane as it was about to take off from Moldova. Hundreds more set warehouses ablaze and shut down Ukraine’s ports."}],[{"start":25.72,"text":"Russia’s new jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones have pummeled Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, evading air defences at a much higher rate than their propeller-driven predecessors to pose a major new threat."}],[{"start":39.12,"text":"It is a striking shift for a military whose battlefield gains since Vladimir Putin’s invasion in 2022 have come at huge human cost and heavy losses of Soviet-era equipment. While Ukraine has excelled at homegrown defence tech innovation, the new drones show Russia can also develop, refine and deploy new weapons at scale, experts say."}],[{"start":60.4,"text":"“They put all their effort, resources, money and talent behind this one system,” said Kateryna Bondar, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They constantly improve them and test them on the battlefield to bring this technology to perfection.”"}],[{"start":76.96,"text":"Near-continuous launches of jet-propelled drones since August 27 have brought Kyiv closer to the daily reality of frontline cities, with daytime strikes disrupting ordinary life alongside mass night-time barrages."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":91.08,"text":"The surge, which Ukraine’s air force says reached a record 2,800 launches in August, has followed Kyiv’s campaign of long-range drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and commercial warehouses, inflicting economic pain on Moscow."}],[{"start":104.72,"text":"On Thursday, a Russian drone plunged into a petrol station in Kyiv’s Holosiivskyi district, the first such strike in the capital. Two people died the next day after two more filling stations were hit in attacks Zelenskyy described as “increasingly terrorist in nature”."}],[{"start":120.4,"text":"The push comes as Moscow has incurred significant losses on the Ukrainian battlefield. Sir Richard Knighton, the UK chief of defence staff, on Friday said Russia sustained its “one-and-a-half-millionth military casualty”. Of those injured and killed, “1.4mn have been sustained in order to gain just 2 per cent of Ukraine’s territory” since January 2023, he added."}],[{"start":141.86,"text":"With Russian frontline advances stalling and the cost of the war ballooning, the drone successes are a rare bright spot."}],[{"start":147.72,"text":"Russia’s drone capabilities have improved so much that Tehran asked Moscow this year for advanced Geran drones for use in its war with Israel and the US, according to western security officials and a person close to the Kremlin."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":161.08,"text":"The Geran is an updated version of the Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia first began producing in 2023."}],[{"start":167.92,"text":"The first generation, Geran-1, carries a warhead of up to 20kg and has a top speed of 185km/h. The jet-powered Geran-5, reportedly first deployed by Russia this January, can fly at up to 600km/h while carrying a 90kg warhead over a range of 1,000km."}],[{"start":187.48,"text":"While the Geran-4 uses a more aerodynamic version of the original airframe, the Geran-5 has a new structure closer to that of a cruise missile. The upgrade goes beyond speed and shape: older Gerans had rudimentary guidance, while newer variants are fitted with thermal cameras and AI-powered targeting systems, Russian-made anti-jamming antennas and Chinese mesh radio network modems."}],[{"start":209.26,"text":"“The Russian operator flies at an altitude of 2-5km, spots the target, locks on to it with the camera, and then the Shahed automatically attacks,” said Serhiy Beskrestnov, an adviser to Ukraine’s defence minister. He said almost all jet-powered drones currently attacking Ukraine were equipped with such cameras."}],[{"start":227.48,"text":"Centralised production has allowed the Kremlin to adapt the drones, absorb battlefield feedback and deploy new models quickly. The drones cost a fraction of the missiles that formed the core of Moscow’s previous air campaigns."}],[{"start":239.16,"text":"Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based think-tank, said: “The reason Russia was able to create a major new production line from scratch was because it’s technologically a lot simpler than making something like tanks, which require enormous, unique and costly machine tools.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":258.36,"text":"Mass production has also accelerated innovation."}],[{"start":261.72,"text":"Pukhov said: “They basically skipped the lengthy testing period you normally have for any military development process. Every change was immediately implemented in the systems and sent straight to the battlefield, and if something didn’t work, they just fixed it as they went along without having to change the production.”"}],[{"start":279.4,"text":"Ukraine is intercepting only about 60 per cent of the jet-propelled drones, compared with the 90 per cent to 95 per cent rates it routinely achieves against other versions, according to air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat. Recent raids have forced Kyiv into “very intensive use” of its fighter jets, he said, with some pilots shooting down drones with onboard cannon fire in a particularly risky manoeuvre."}],[{"start":302.28,"text":"The challenge comes as Ukraine is short of sophisticated anti-air missiles, leaving it vulnerable to devastating ballistic missile strikes. Over the summer, the air force stopped publishing daily interception rates for ballistic missiles."}],[{"start":316.08,"text":"The mass deployment of the newest models surprised Ukrainian officials and manufacturers. They said Moscow had been expected to focus on the less powerful Geran-3, which flies at about 300km/h, rather than the faster, longer-range Geran-4 and Geran-5."}],[{"start":331.58,"text":"“It was difficult to predict how these plans would play out,” one representative of Wild Hornets, maker of the popular Sting drone interceptor, told the FT."}],[{"start":340.5,"text":"Wild Hornets is now finalising a new interceptor for the jet-powered munitions, with mass production expected to begin soon. Zelenskyy said 67 Ukrainian companies were working on ways to shoot down the new Gerans."}],[{"start":353.72,"text":"Ukraine’s success in shooting down older Russian drone models has pushed Moscow towards what military analyst Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a Polish analytical group monitoring the war, calls the “cruise-ification” of its unmanned aircraft."}],[{"start":368.34,"text":"The new drones fly at speeds and altitudes that blur the line between drone and cruise missile."}],[{"start":373.88,"text":"“Soon we’ll probably see these drones having stealth capabilities, and that means it will become even more expensive to manufacture, procure and use them, but also more expensive to destroy them,” he said."}],[{"start":385.08,"text":"The new drones are costlier and more difficult to launch than earlier models but remain cheaper than the Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missiles Russia has fired at Ukraine since 2022, allowing Moscow to strike a broader range of targets."}],[{"start":398.56,"text":"The Kremlin is using them alongside low-cost Banderol cruise missiles in a new campaign against warehouses, logistics centres and Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. One Banderol flew towards Odesa just 20 metres above the sea in early September, according to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military analyst at the Kyiv-based Information Resistance group."}],[{"start":418.88,"text":"Russian Sukhoi-25 fighter jets can also deploy the Geran-5 from beyond Ukrainian air defences’ reach, according to pro-Kremlin media."}],[{"start":426.28,"text":"“We are seeing a technological shift from expensive weapons to mass-produced, precise and versatile ones capable of carrying out combat missions as part of combined and group strikes,” said Alexander Stepanov, a military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration."}],[{"start":444.4,"text":"Western countries could slow production of the new Gerans and Banderol by targeting supplies of commercially available Chinese jet engines, said Fabian Hoffmann, a senior research fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies."}],[{"start":457.24,"text":"But if Russia maintains its current tempo and access to foreign propulsion technology, it “could quickly emerge as the world’s largest low-cost cruise missile manufacturer”, Hoffmann added."}],[{"start":467.88,"text":"Until Ukraine finds an effective way to shoot down the new Gerans, the long-range air war may shift back in Russia’s favour, according to Pukhov."}],[{"start":475.64,"text":"“Ukraine doesn’t make its own anti-air missiles, and it’s not like a drone. You can’t make it in a garage.”"}],[{"start":481.68,"text":"Additional reporting by Katya Arenina in Vilnius and Charles Clover in London"}],[{"start":486.32,"text":"Graphic by Ian Bott and Bob Haslett"}],[{"start":492.09,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789281164_2705.mp3"}