Brazil’s Bolsonaro dynasty closes in on stunning comeback

{"text":[[{"start":9.55,"text":"Flávio Bolsonaro is in touching distance of a remarkable family comeback after the first round of voting in Brazil’s presidential election made him a strong favourite to win later this month. "}],[{"start":21.75,"text":"Just over a year ago, his father Jair Bolsonaro, the former president and leader of Brazil’s hard-right populist movement, was jailed for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election defeat to veteran leftwinger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva."}],[{"start":38.95,"text":"But despite a campaign beset by scandal and a public feud within the family, Flávio Bolsonaro defied the opinion polls to come out ahead in the first round of voting, leaving him in pole position to win a run-off against Lula on October 25. "}],[{"start":55.1,"text":"Bolsonaro, who is a senator for Rio de Janeiro, received 47 per cent of the votes and Lula received 45.2 per cent."}],[{"start":64.85,"text":"Riding a political wave across the region that has been in favour of rightwing candidates and hostile to incumbents, the 45-year-old Bolsonaro declared on Sunday evening that it was “the end of the era” for Lula’s Workers’ Party. "}],[{"start":79.44999999999999,"text":"If the younger Bolsonaro is victorious on October 25, the biggest country in Latin America will be led by an ally of US President Donald Trump, as Washington seeks to impose greater sway across the region. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":92.19999999999999,"text":"It could also open up the prospect of a major institutional crisis, as Bolsonaro has pledged to try to free his father from what allies denounce as political persecution. Jair Bolsonaro was jailed for 27 years by the Supreme Court for planning a coup. "}],[{"start":109.24999999999999,"text":"Analysts said Bolsonaro’s strong showing, despite a stumbling campaign, owes more to fatigue with his opponent than to his own qualities."}],[{"start":117.69999999999999,"text":"Murilo Medeiros, a political scientist in Brasília, said Bolsonaro’s unexpected surge in the final stretch was driven by tactical voting and a desire for change."}],[{"start":129.5,"text":"“It wasn’t a wave in favour of Flávio. Above all, it was an anti-Lula wave — a rejection of the status quo and a desire for a change in power,” he added."}],[{"start":139.45,"text":"The leftwinger, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, is a controversial figure among many Brazilians after being jailed for corruption (the convictions were later annulled)."}],[{"start":149.64999999999998,"text":"Analysts say that a Lula comeback cannot be ruled out, especially if new revelations were to emerge about a bank scandal that has roiled the election for months. "}],[{"start":159.39999999999998,"text":"However, they believe Bolsonaro has a clearer path to victory as the next three candidates in the first round, who together collected 7.3 per cent of ballots, range from centre to rightwing — and so are more likely to transfer voters to him. By contrast, there were no other serious leftwing or centre-left candidates, leaving Lula few natural sympathisers."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":182.04999999999998,"text":"Bolsonaro’s platform is a mixture of pro-business pledges, traditional values and a crackdown on crime. Espousing the fervent Christian nationalism of his father, he has called for chemical castration of male sex offenders and for criminal responsibility to be recognised from the age of 16."}],[{"start":199.29999999999998,"text":"Mario Marconini, managing director at risk consultancy Teneo, says this chimed with conservative mores in the South American country. “What really prevailed this time has a lot to do with purity, values, authority, social norms, as opposed to necessarily economic liberalism,” he said."}],[{"start":218.39999999999998,"text":"A trained lawyer and elected politician since the age of 21, the eldest Bolsonaro son has sought to cast himself as the more moderate member of the family. Among colleagues in Congress, he was long considered a low-key operator open to negotiation."}],[{"start":233.2,"text":"This contrasts with his fiery father and combative brother Eduardo, a former lawmaker now living in Texas, who was convicted in absentia of courting US interference in Jair’s coup trial. "}],[{"start":245.89999999999998,"text":"While benefiting from his father’s enduring popularity with a segment of the electorate, Bolsonaro has failed to generate the same enthusiasm. "}],[{"start":253.95,"text":"“Flávio is a terrible candidate. He has no charisma,” said Filipe Campante, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. “The only reason he’s in this position is because his dad tapped him as his avatar . . . But Lula is 80 years old, and not really offering much of a vision for the future.”"}],[{"start":272.75,"text":"Bolsonaro’s campaign lurched from crisis to crisis. The conservative heir was dragged into a huge corruption scandal roiling Brasília, after it emerged that he obtained millions of dollars from a suspected fraudster to fund a film about his father. An investigation is continuing and he denies any wrongdoing."}],[{"start":293.4,"text":"Then, a trip to see Trump in Washington backfired after new tariffs against Brazil were announced days later, leading to accusations of treachery by Lula supporters. A very public bust-up with his stepmother — a popular figure among evangelical women, and now a senator-elect — risked a serious internal split in the movement."}],[{"start":313.2,"text":"Probably in no small part reflecting his father’s divisive reputation, the younger Bolsonaro has high voter rejection rates, equal to Lula’s. "}],[{"start":323.15,"text":"Bolsonaro’s weaknesses were underlined by his troubles building bridges with Brazil’s business elites, who are unhappy with Lula’s more statist economic policies and tax increases. "}],[{"start":333.79999999999995,"text":"Marcelo Kayath, the former head of Credit Suisse in Brazil who has been acting as an intermediary with the financial sector, says this has changed in recent weeks. Bolsonaro has held a series of meetings and dinners with prominent captains of commerce."}],[{"start":349.29999999999995,"text":"“They didn’t know him and had the wrong impression. They thought he was another populist politician,” said Kayath. “He wants to simplify the life of companies and bring predictability.”"}],[{"start":360.19999999999993,"text":"While Bolsonaro has sworn to cut Brazil’s public spending and debt, Kayath said he was committed to welfare programmes. “You have to cut costs to make the social programmes more sustainable,” he added. "}],[{"start":378.34999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1791199977_6298.mp3"}