{"text":[[{"start":10.04,"text":"After a weak jobs report in September, economists expect US hiring to have picked up in October, with unemployment remaining stable. If confirmed, this could add to bets on an interest rate rise from the Federal Reserve at its next policy meeting in December."}],[{"start":25.72,"text":"The labour department is expected to report on Friday that the US economy added 60,000 jobs in October, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists, after just 29,000 in September. The unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 4.2 per cent."}],[{"start":42.4,"text":"Job growth in recent months has been muted as companies grapple with high inflation and high borrowing costs and consider the ways in which artificial intelligence may replace human labour. But while hiring has been slow, lay-offs have also been muted so far. Data on employment costs this week showed that wage growth has slowed across the economy and is now trailing the rate of inflation."}],[{"start":64.68,"text":"“Job growth has been solid but not strong over 2026 as businesses navigate a rising cost and interest rate environment. Wage gains are likely to remain softer ahead, with continued cautious hiring demand across some industries due to elevated operational costs,” said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide."}],[{"start":84.12,"text":"Though hiring may remain subdued, a stable unemployment rate could keep the Fed on track to raise interest rates by a quarter point in December. Currently, traders in futures markets suggest a 75 per cent chance of a rise at that meeting, slightly down over the past week after a string of disappointing corporate earnings."}],[{"start":103.28,"text":"The central bank kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting this week, despite intensifying inflation. But two dissents on the committee imply continued internal pressure at the Fed to respond to recent steep price rises. Kate Duguid"}],[{"start":116.4,"text":"Will Eurozone inflation bolster the case for rate rises?"}],[{"start":121.26,"text":"After a 15 per cent rise in oil prices to about $117 a barrel and a 39 per cent surge in gas prices to above €100 per megawatt hour during October, inflation across the 21 countries using the euro is expected to have risen to almost 4 per cent last month."}],[{"start":138.92,"text":"Economists polled by Reuters expect data on Wednesday to show that consumer price inflation in the Eurozone edged up 0.1 percentage points to an annual rate of 3.9 per cent in October. This would be the fastest pace in three years and the eighth month in a row with inflation above the European Central Bank’s medium-term 2 per cent target."}],[{"start":161.04,"text":"A faster pace of inflation, on top of the surprisingly strong GDP growth of 0.4 per cent reported in the third quarter, could strengthen the case for a third increase in interest rates by the ECB at its meeting on December 17. ECB president Christine Lagarde told journalists on Thursday that the governing council contemplated such a step during its October meeting but, eventually, decided unanimously to wait six weeks."}],[{"start":187.72,"text":"“The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely they are to drive up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects,” she warned, adding that the overall situation “could have warranted a hike” in October."}],[{"start":201,"text":"Lagarde signalled that, barring big economic surprises in the coming weeks, “the sense of direction is quite clear”."}],[{"start":207.48,"text":"The ECB raised its policy rate in two steps in June and September to 2.5 per cent. Traders in swaps markets have fully priced a quarter-point increase to 2.75 per cent by early February, with a roughly 64 per cent chance that the ECB will act in December. Olaf Storbeck"}],[{"start":225.64,"text":"Will the BoE deliver a ‘dovish hike’?"}],[{"start":230.16,"text":"Investors will closely scrutinise the Bank of England’s communications on Thursday for any sign of whether policymakers agree with market expectations of four quarter-point interest rate rises by the end of next year."}],[{"start":241.84,"text":"There is broad consensus among economists and financial markets that the BoE will raise its benchmark rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 4 per cent on Thursday, in what would be its first increase since the start of the Iran war at the end of February."}],[{"start":257.36,"text":"Several factors support a rate rise. Inflation accelerated to an annual pace of 3.5 per cent in September, its fastest in almost a year. The Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday raised its inflation forecast for 2027 to 3.4 per cent, up from 2 per cent in its March forecast."}],[{"start":277.08,"text":"The UK economy has also proved to be more resilient than expected, expanding 0.7 per cent in the three months to August, suggesting activity could withstand higher borrowing costs."}],[{"start":287.96,"text":"However, many economists expect fewer rate rises than financial markets are pricing, arguing that there is little evidence that high energy costs are feeding into broader price pressures. Some policymakers may seek to signal a similarly cautious approach."}],[{"start":303.4,"text":"“We anticipate a dovish November hike,” said Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank."}],[{"start":309.76,"text":"He said policymakers could take a cautious approach to future rate rises, with the Monetary Policy Committee emphasising that any rise in rates now amounts to an insurance policy against potential second-round effects."}],[{"start":322.96,"text":"Analysts expect external MPC members Alan Taylor and Swati Dhingra to favour keeping rates on hold. Both have previously argued that monetary policy remains restrictive."}],[{"start":334.16,"text":"The BoE will also publish updated economic and inflation forecasts on Thursday, incorporating higher energy prices and a steeper market-implied path for interest rates than in its July outlook. Valentina Romei"}],[{"start":345.9,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793587616_9586.mp3"}