Zambia’s election becomes battle over copper windfall

{"text":[[{"start":7.7,"text":"When Zambia’s president Hakainde Hichilema kicked off his re-election campaign with a visit to Chingola, in the country’s copper-mining heartland, it was meant to showcase his government’s economic success amid record-high prices for the red metal."}],[{"start":22,"text":"But as Hichilema spoke last November, a crowd began chanting “Senseli” — the name of a nearby mine where small-scale miners have been fighting for access to prospective sources of copper. Stones flew towards the podium and the presidential holding tent was set alight before security officials bundled Hichilema away."}],[{"start":41.04,"text":"On Thursday, Hichilema will seek a second term in an election widely seen as a test of whether ordinary Zambians believe they have benefited from the copper windfall, as young people on the continent grow increasingly impatient for a greater share of its mineral wealth."}],[{"start":56,"text":"Hichilema can claim strong economic growth on his watch: the IMF projects growth of 4.3 per cent this year. And Zambia’s statistics agency says the annual inflation rate has halved to 6.5 per cent from a year earlier."}],[{"start":69.6,"text":"But the president’s opponents charge that the economic turnaround is more visible in capital markets than on the streets. Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, is among the world’s poorest and most unequal countries, with more than 70 per cent of the country’s 22mn people living on less than $3 a day."}],[{"start":87.74,"text":"Hichilema’s strongest challenger is Brian Mundubile, a lawyer and former MP with a substantial political base in the pivotal Copperbelt region. He has campaigned on a platform of criticism of the government’s handling of the cost of living and a sharp critique of its human rights record."}],[{"start":103.9,"text":"Mundubile, who was himself briefly detained earlier this year, has seen his supporters tear-gassed in recent days. “I have to warn that democracy is going to the grave today in Zambia right before the eyes of the world,” he said earlier this year."}],[{"start":118.08,"text":"After 15 years as an opposition politician, Hichilema swept to power in August 2021, nine months after Zambia had defaulted on its sovereign debt, promising to revive a battered economy and make life better for ordinary people."}],[{"start":132.26,"text":"International investors and financial markets have welcomed the economic results on his watch — restructuring the country’s debt and maximising profits from the copper industry — as global prices rise to record highs this year."}],[{"start":144.74,"text":"But many ordinary citizens say they have yet to see the benefits. “Sixty-something years after independence, many Zambians are not happy with the way politicians are managing the mining industry,” said Trevor Simumba, an economist and analyst based in Lusaka. “We can’t have all this resource and wealth and we are not seeing the benefits — it doesn’t make sense.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":167.12,"text":"Hichilema returned to Chingola last month and directed that two dumps of slag deposit — potentially rich in unused residual copper that could be extracted — should be opened to local young people for small-scale mining, with equipment and training to help them work the sites safely."}],[{"start":181.98,"text":"“He may just be able to squeeze a second term,” Simumba said. “But because of what he’s been hearing on the campaign trail, he will also have to adjust his way of looking at foreign direct investment and especially the mining sector”, suggesting that Hichilema may seek to renegotiate contracts."}],[{"start":198.7,"text":"Hichilema, who has positioned himself as more business-friendly than his predecessors, has drawn around $10bn of investment into Zambia’s mining sector since 2021. He has said he plans to double copper output to 3mn tonnes annually by 2031, and to restore the country’s access to international capital markets after its debt restructuring in 2024."}],[{"start":220.26,"text":"“We will double the size of the Zambian economy, permanently end load-shedding, and create millions of new jobs,” Hichilema said in a May election address."}],[{"start":229.7,"text":"He has chosen to prioritise economic stability over the kind of populist spending that might have offered more immediate relief, said Lubinda Haabazoka, director of the University of Zambia’s Graduate School of Business."}],[{"start":241.22,"text":"“The economy knows no quick fixes,” said Haabazoka. “In many respects, his government’s economic ‘trick’ was to prioritise macroeconomic repair first, while betting that visible growth and improved stability would arrive before the electorate votes in 2026.”"}],[{"start":256.62,"text":"But voters have not necessarily felt the impact. “The copper is going out, but what are we getting from it?” said Branham Chitalu, a worker at a Chinese-owned copper mine in Kitwe."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":268.24,"text":"Emmanuel Mwamba, a former diplomat and senior official in the previous ruling party who is now in exile, claimed that well-connected mining companies were extracting the country’s wealth at the expense of ordinary citizens. “These multinationals have gotten benefits . . . [through] policies to benefit them,” he said."}],[{"start":285.54,"text":"Mundubile, the principal challenger, says he will focus on ensuring Zambians get more value out of their mineral wealth."}],[{"start":292.62,"text":"But investors are watching him with caution: “Zambia cannot easily afford to abandon the fiscal discipline and debt restructuring that restored its access to international capital markets,” said an executive at a large copper mining company in the Copperbelt. “For investors, the priority is continuity and clarity.”"}],[{"start":311.78,"text":"A record number of independent candidates are tapping the discontent with the ruling UPND, with 14 presidential candidates and some 360 independents contesting 226 parliamentary seats. Under Hichilema, the constitution was amended to expand parliament despite objections from the Constitutional Court and civil society groups."}],[{"start":332.62,"text":"Recent, reliable opinion polls are hard to come by. But analysts expect Hichilema’s UPND to fall short of a majority in parliament, potentially leaving the president with less leeway to continue his project."}],[{"start":344.66,"text":"Mulenga Pascal Bwalya, who spent 38 years working at Konkola Copper Mines, says he has watched Zambia’s mining wealth pass through successive eras of private and state ownership without making people like him substantially richer."}],[{"start":357.26,"text":"“We have a problem of political negligence,” said Bwalya, who said he would make a final decision once in the voting booth."}],[{"start":368.24,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786604232_8048.mp3"}