{"text":[[{"start":10.36,"text":"“Big and tall” customers have been a mainstay of Alan Horowitz’s bespoke suit-maker business for 25 years."}],[{"start":17.56,"text":"But as weight-loss drugs have swept the US — becoming so common that one in 10 Americans now takes them — he has lost clients. Gone are some of the heavier-set customers who once came to his store on Madison Avenue in Manhattan because they could not shop in department stores."}],[{"start":34.28,"text":"Now his fifth-generation family business, Alan David Custom — which traces its roots to 1913 when Horowitz’s great-grandfather founded a tailor’s in Brooklyn after fleeing Russia — is being further stung by its commitment to free lifetime alterations."}],[{"start":49.2,"text":"“The wild swings in weight . . . It’s been a tailoring nightmare,” says Horowitz. He estimates that weight-loss drugs have knocked around 10-12 per cent off revenue."}],[{"start":59.08,"text":"Since Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy was first approved for chronic weight management by the US Food and Drug Administration in 2021, GLP-1s, as the drugs are known, have soared in popularity. As of June, roughly 38mn people in the US were actively using them, according to pollster Gallup. In the UK, PwC estimates that around 5 per cent of adults are on the drugs."}],[{"start":82.36,"text":"People on weight-loss drugs are changing what they eat, do and buy, distorting traditional patterns of consumer spending. For certain sectors, such as gyms and healthcare supplements, GLP-1s are creating new customers and opportunities for expansion."}],[{"start":96.64,"text":"Other industries are having to rethink their fundamentals. In consumer goods, value has long been equated with getting the most for your money; the allure of two for the price of one, for example. But among the weight-loss cohort, moderation is a selling point. Brands from restaurant chains to alcohol are trying to protect their margins by selling less of their product for the same price — or higher."}],[{"start":117.48,"text":"This new GLP-1 economy is rising up the broader corporate agenda. More than 200 publicly traded companies outside the healthcare sector discussed GLP-1s or weight-loss drugs in earnings calls in the three months to the end of September, more than double the same period last year."}],[{"start":135,"text":"Some, including Doritos maker PepsiCo, Domino’s Pizza and steak chain Texas Roadhouse, cite the drugs’ impact on diets as a potential business risk. In the UK, GLP-1s have cut grocery spending by an estimated £780mn per year at current uptake rates, according to Worldpanel by Numerator, a research group."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":155.88,"text":"In the near future, use is only expected to expand. Originally developed as a treatment for diabetes, GLP-1s — glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists — act as appetite suppressants by triggering the release of insulin into the bloodstream. They are typically injected and, until now, uptake has been concentrated among the wealthiest households."}],[{"start":175.64,"text":"But the drugs are expected to become more widely available in pill format. Manufacturing costs are projected to decline. Cheaper generic versions should also become available in the next decade as patents for semaglutide, the active ingredient in Wegovy and Ozempic, expire in the early 2030s in the US and Europe."}],[{"start":195.4,"text":"Weight-loss drugs are part of what now looks like a broader, permanent shift in consumer behaviour, analysts say, as people fixate on health — on eating protein, taking supplements and tracking nutrition and exercise, while cutting back on alcohol."}],[{"start":208.64,"text":"For certain brands and sectors, it will be a case of adapt or die. Others are already the beneficiaries of new customers."}],[{"start":209.14,"text":"Weight-loss winners: Fitness"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":215.6,"text":"Alex Wood, chief executive of PureGym, which operates gyms across Europe, the Middle East and the US, says his team “spent a lot of time” fretting over whether weight-loss drugs would encourage people to skip the gym."}],[{"start":229.32,"text":"He is now optimistic that GLP-1s will be a boon. Since users of weight-loss drugs can rapidly shed muscle mass and bone density as well as fat, GLP-1s are pushing users towards barbells, dumbbells and resistance machines. Wood thinks that GLP-1 users experience “improved mental wellbeing” as they lose weight, which will “naturally move [them] towards exercise”."}],[{"start":250.5,"text":"In June, a survey by PwC UK found that 27 per cent of GLP-1 users said they would increase their spending on fitness, while just 5 per cent said they would cut back."}],[{"start":262.08,"text":"To accommodate the new clients, the biggest gym brands including PureGym, Planet Fitness — the largest US chain — and the UK’s The Gym Group have dedicated a greater share of floorspace to strength and functional training."}],[{"start":274.84,"text":"PureGym has also introduced educational programmes for its personal trainers and is hoping to offer discounted membership packages alongside weight-loss prescriptions, replicating promotions trialled at fitness outlets across the US."}],[{"start":287.72,"text":"Planet Fitness chief Colleen Keating said in an earnings call in August that the chain’s partnership with telehealth GLP-1 prescriber Ro had been “one of our most successful and most utilised perks”."}],[{"start":299.4,"text":"Health and beauty"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":300.92,"text":"Taking GLP-1s comes with side effects, nausea, headaches and indigestion among them. A survey of 1,500 users by the Boston Consulting Group found that those on the drugs spend 20 per cent more on supplements than those not taking the drugs. Respondents spent the most on protein to target muscle loss, fibre to help digestion and collagen to offset skin sagging."}],[{"start":323.04,"text":"“GLP-1s exacerbate certain stressors in the body as you’re losing weight fast,” said Jostein Solheim, the head of Unilever’s Wellness division, at a conference this summer, nodding to side effects such as hair loss and dehydration."}],[{"start":336.66,"text":"Beauty groups are also benefiting from the popularity of GLP-1s. Galderma, a Swiss dermatology giant, has seen booming demand for its injectable products after the company publicised clinical trials that showed they could treat facial sagging with injections. The company’s most popular injectable for weight-loss drug users is Sculptra, which costs upwards of £500 in London and was initially developed for HIV patients who experienced rapid weight loss."}],[{"start":363.12,"text":"New products are also heading for pharmacy shelves. At a trading update this summer, L’Oréal chief Nicolas Hieronimus said the company was addressing skin sagging and hair loss with a range of serums and treatments."}],[{"start":363.62,"text":"Airlines"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":375.44,"text":"Airlines go to extraordinary lengths to save weight. Jet fuel was the biggest single cost for carriers even before the Iran war sent prices doubling."}],[{"start":384.76,"text":"Removing olives from meals, carrying slimmer plates and reducing the weight of drinks carts are all ways carriers have tried to shed load in the past. Small savings add up: when United Airlines began printing its in-flight magazine on lighter paper to save a single ounce per issue, the fuel cost saving across its fleet was close to $300,000 a year."}],[{"start":407.68,"text":"But any attempt to control the weight of passengers themselves has been met with outrage. That may change."}],[{"start":414.56,"text":"In January — before the Iran conflict — Sheila Kahyaoglu at investment bank Jefferies calculated the potential impact of weight-loss drugs for a single flight. A 10 per cent average weight reduction among the 178 passengers on a Boeing 737 Max 8 would shave 2 per cent from the aircraft’s take-off weight, she found. For the four large US carriers combined, these savings could equate to about $580mn per year."}],[{"start":442,"text":"As more people turn to the drugs, it’s “not ridiculous” to see it feeding into meaningful cost savings for airlines, she says. “If you look at what airlines do to try and cut down on the cost . . . it actually could move the needle, especially because oil is so high right now.” Healthier people may also be more prone to travel, she adds."}],[{"start":461.6,"text":"But it may not be all upside. Any cost savings from fuel may be offset by the loss of high-margin sales of snacks, fizzy drinks and alcohol. Airlines may also re-use saved weight by adding highly profitable cargo, the price of which has risen steeply since the Iran conflict."}],[{"start":462.1,"text":"Weight-loss losers: Packaged food"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":481.22,"text":"Many weight-loss drug users lose the impulse to snack and struggle to digest rich and fatty foods. For certain aisles in the supermarket, this is unwelcome news."}],[{"start":490.48,"text":"In the first six months of taking the drugs, people spent 9 per cent less on “sweet bakery” goods such as muffins and doughnuts and 11 per cent less on crisps and other savoury snacks, according to a Cornell University and Numerator study that tracked GLP-1 users for three years."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":506.92,"text":"Some businesses — from chocolatiers to burger chains — are trying to preserve their bottom lines by pushing premium products that command higher prices."}],[{"start":515.04,"text":"Mintel consultant Toby Clark described this phenomenon as “less but better”, with high-quality and nutrient-dense products taking over from snacks for grazing."}],[{"start":524.32,"text":"“It’s perhaps not a surprise that people who are willing to pay this much for their health through GLP-1s will also pay more for healthier and better options,” says Saxon Moseley, head of leisure and hospitality at accounting firm RSM UK."}],[{"start":539.46,"text":"The Magnum Ice Cream Company is focusing on bite-size and small portions and ice cream enriched with protein, which users are advised to eat more of to offset the muscle loss associated with the drugs."}],[{"start":551.18,"text":"Chief executive Peter ter Kulve said in the company’s annual report this year that GLP-1 users were moving from “mindless munching” to “more deliberately choosing their pleasure moments”."}],[{"start":562.28,"text":"One of the few winners in the grocery stakes is yoghurt, which is rich in protein. According to the International Dairy Foods Association, yoghurt sales in the US rose 6.7 per cent year-on-year by volume in August, outstripped only by cottage cheese, another high-protein favourite."}],[{"start":562.78,"text":"Drinks"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":580.42,"text":"Views diverge on whether widespread GLP-1 adoption will lead to a meaningful slump in drinking. Researchers assume that because the drugs curb appetite, they will damp cravings for alcohol in the same way they do for cookies and crisps."}],[{"start":594.86,"text":"Yet actual spending paints a different picture. According to the Cornell study, in the first six months of taking the drug, users’ alcohol spending decreased by only 1 per cent, compared with a 5.3 per cent drop for all groceries."}],[{"start":608.78,"text":"London-listed Diageo, the world’s largest spirits producer, has played down the impact of GLP-1s. At its Capital Markets Day in August, the Johnnie Walker maker’s chief strategy officer Hannah Brooks said people on the drugs spent just 2 per cent less on spirits, 4 per cent less on beer and 5 per cent less on wine. At least 50 per cent of people on GLP-1s still go to the pub or a bar at least once a week, she added."}],[{"start":634.46,"text":"“From a psyche point of view, people are sometimes creating occasions to go out. They want to showcase their progress,” she said. Those who were going out tended to gravitate towards spirits over beer or wine, she added, because they were lower calorie and volume."}],[{"start":650.14,"text":"Like every other consumer sector, the industry is eager to find a silver lining. Laurence Whyatt, an analyst at Barclays, says that in the bank’s regular survey of alcohol wholesalers and retailers, a third saw GLP-1 users buying fewer, but pricier spirits bottles."}],[{"start":650.64,"text":"Hospitality"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":666.98,"text":"Fast-food chains are at the sharp end. Researchers at Cornell, who tracked household purchases from July 2022 to September 2024, found an 8 per cent decline in spending at fast-food and limited-service restaurants after at least one member of a household started on GLP-1s."}],[{"start":686.02,"text":"Domino’s Pizza — which warned investors in February that weight-loss therapies risked hitting demand — this month reported below-inflation sales growth in the three months to September, as customers bought fewer items in each order. Citi analyst Jon Tower says GLP-1s were likely to have played a part, although the company explained it as consumers feeling economic strain."}],[{"start":708.26,"text":"Skye Anderson, president of McDonald’s USA, insisted at an investor day in September that the world’s largest fast-food chain had “a strong right to win” in a market for protein-rich meals, and could also lean into an appetite for “greater portion flexibility” with signature dishes such as McNuggets."}],[{"start":726.06,"text":"The chain is also reworking its menu. Analysts in attendance at McDonald’s headquarters in Chicago were treated to new “protein-forward options” currently in the pipeline, including protein bowls, grilled chicken and egg bites."}],[{"start":739.3,"text":"Some chains have also moved to cut America’s traditionally outsized portion sizes. KFC introduced “snackable” portions of chicken and fries, priced from $3.49 in the US, in October."}],[{"start":751.66,"text":"GLP-1s have so far hit “single-user occasions” more than social outings, says Tower. That means takeaway and fast food have borne the brunt of a slowdown in foot traffic, while sit-down restaurants — and fine-dining in particular — have been less affected."}],[{"start":766.6,"text":"In the UK, restaurants are rushing to “re-engineer menus” by looking to protein-rich dishes and small plates in particular, says Moseley of RSM UK. Sit-down restaurants serving smaller portions may face pressure to maintain, or even raise, prices to cope with a decline in traditionally high-margin starters, desserts and alcohol."}],[{"start":787.36,"text":"Restaurateurs will need to watch out for accusations of shrinkflation, however, says consultant Daniel Angerer. Customers “understandably expect to pay less” if they are receiving a smaller portion, he says, even though the savings to a restaurant can be minimal. “Your landlord isn’t going to give you a discount because your customers are on GLP-1s and aren’t eating enough,” he adds."}],[{"start":787.86,"text":"Fashion"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":807.98,"text":"The proliferation of weight-loss drugs has caught some clothing manufacturers by surprise. Almost three-quarters of active GLP-1 users report a “meaningful change” in clothing size, according to PwC research."}],[{"start":820.5,"text":"XL retailers are among the most exposed. In September, Macy’s CEO Tony Spring told a conference that the US department store giant was “beginning [to see the] early impact of GLP-1s”. He said: “All I can see is that the plus-size business is very soft and that most other areas of apparel are healthy.”"}],[{"start":839.38,"text":"Impact Analytics, an inventory software provider, expects XL-focused brands will be hit by structural decline due to overstocking, pressuring them to mark down prices to clear inventory."}],[{"start":850.08,"text":"“For the last 50 years or so you’ve seen the US grow larger with higher average adult calorie intake,” Impact Analytics CEO Prashant Agrawal says. “What you’ve seen in the last two years is calorie intake going down. That’s leading to a tectonic shift in the size curve.”"}],[{"start":866.18,"text":"Weight loss is creating business for some brands. Although some GLP-1 users delay clothing purchases while actively losing weight, according to PwC’s research, they estimate that the drugs will have “one of the most directionally positive spend stories” on clothing."}],[{"start":880.42,"text":"“As people start to feel different in their bodies, they often start dressing differently and treating themselves to higher-quality, more expensive brands,” Ali Furman, PwC US consumer markets industry leader, wrote in June."}],[{"start":895.98,"text":"Alan Horowitz, the bespoke New York suit maker, has witnessed the GLP-1 swings first-hand. His clientele, the most famous of which can require NDAs, spans Wall Street, Yankee Stadium and the US Capitol."}],[{"start":908.54,"text":"“Everyone looks at the GLPs as just weight loss, but we see a lot of customers that go the other way [after using them] and then they’re upset because they gain weight and they’ve already brought the suit in. They don’t understand when they go from a 38-inch back to a 44-inch waist why I can’t make it work. It’s bespoke,” says Horowitz."}],[{"start":926.98,"text":"Grooms have become particularly unpredictable. “The fiancées are all over the guys to get into shape,” Horowitz says. In the past, his tailors would cut the suits smaller to protect against pre-wedding weight loss. But GLP-1s have forced them to make provisional garments between fittings to allow the tailors to adjust measurements before cutting the final suit."}],[{"start":946.74,"text":"“All of a sudden, the guy that never picked up a bicycle is working out. He can come in on March 1 and weigh 220lb and then he comes back April 1 at 190lb,” says Horowitz. “That costs a lot of money.”"}],[{"start":947.24,"text":"Data visualisation by Clara Murray"}],[{"start":962.26,"text":"This article has been updated to correct the weight saving on United Airlines’ in-flight magazine"}],[{"start":971.15,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793366102_7335.mp3"}