The bullish signs from Japan’s bear panic - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号)。如果该手机号尚未注册,将自动创建 FT中文网账号。短信可能需要几分钟送达,验证码15分钟内有效,请耐心等待:
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议和隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
观点 日本经济

The bullish signs from Japan’s bear panic

Even as it faces national dotage, the country remains a formidable industrial power

If you are looking for an alarm system that incorporates the latest in AI-enabled bear facial recognition technology, Japan’s Daiwa Tsushin has the thing for you. And, depending on risk appetite, for your portfolio. 

Trained on 50,000 photos and videos of bears native to Japan and empowered by a dedicated server, Face Bear will trigger anti-bear sirens and alert the property owner to the threat of clawed rampage via smartphone, but completely ignore gentler wildlife.

It is a product forged in unsettling and revelatory times. Japan’s bears, in their emboldened advance on cowering towns, are interrogating the nation on global warming, demographics and industrial policy.

Between April and the end of July this year, Japan had experienced a near record 55 bear attacks on humans, thousands more bear sightings than usual and intensive media coverage of the ursine scourge. There have been horrible maulings, three deaths and an unprecedented legal revision to accelerate the authorisation of lethal force as the bears encroach on everything from school sports days, golf tournaments and shopping streets to airport runways, motorways and bullet train tracks.

Unofficial polls of public opinion capture a nation divided. Earlier this summer, when a 52-year-old newspaper delivery man was fatally savaged by a bear in Hokkaido, local authorities fielded hundreds of calls from the public: many pleaded for the bears to be shown clemency, others insisted rangers “shoot the lot”.

The clearest message is straightforwardly alarming. Expert explanations for the rise in Japan’s bear-related incidents over recent years cite the role of climate change — in particular Japan’s shortening rainy seasons, increased freak floods and accumulating tally of record heatwaves — for disrupting the bears’ natural food supply. Nut and other nourishing plant yields are smaller, fruit ripens too early in the feeding cycle, and the smell of urban cuisine drives hangry bears into town.

The second explanation is also dispiriting for ageing, shrinking Japan: the bears are expanding their habitats into what was once irrefutably human territory because they are less impeded. The human population of firearm-licensed rangers has dwindled and greyed. Rural villages increasingly lie near empty as younger Japanese move to cities and the older ones die.

Estimates of Japan’s total bear population are rough, but domestic media cite figures of around 12,000 brown bears and 44,000 black bears. The former has risen steadily. The latter is thought to have tripled over the last 12 years. Japan’s human population, over that period, fell by 5mn. Depending on your taste for symbolism, it paints a demoralising picture of a country facing national dotage: the old and less vigorous incumbent versus the fecund and ravenous animal spirits on its borders.

But such a picture underplays what continues to make Japan so formidable as an industrial power, and the risks of giving that up. Earlier this year, as the first bear attack stories began to proliferate, investors began screening the 3,948 companies listed on Tokyo’s various stock exchanges to find which stocks would stand to benefit from the panic. 

Well over a dozen companies, on an initial trawl, had potentially lucrative exposure to the narrow theme of bear panic via what in many cases are obscure subsidiaries. The basket included four companies like Maeda Kosen, which specialise in sensor-equipped electric fences, and others like Sekisui Jushi, which makes equipment for protecting crops from larger animals. The exposure of Miroku, Japan’s largest manufacturer of hunting rifles was obvious; less so that of Odakyu Electric Railway, whose “Hunter Bank” subsidiary is an online matching service between trained bear hunters and forest workers with a bear problem.

Even as it has retreated demographically, Japan (and by extension its enormous pool of listed companies) remains a full-spec industrial economy. For some years now, that diversity and the perceived surfeit of obscure, non-core (often unprofitable) subsidiaries has been under ideological attack both from investors and from a government keen to make the market more attractive. The streamlining process is already under way, but the country should be wary of giving up too much of its diversity.

Japan’s “more is more” industrial instincts are what convinced Daiwa Tsushin, primarily a security camera business, to get into the AI bear face recognition game. Sadly, its stock has fallen 27 per cent since the start of the year. Mauled, repeatedly, by market bears.

leo.lewis@ft.com

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

为美国关税举办葬礼还为时过早

由于与一位不得人心的总统紧密联系在一起,高关税在下周的中期选举中将是一个有分量的议题,尽管对选民来说格外敏感的食品价格受关税影响并不大。
2小时前

弗拉维奥•博索纳罗逃出巴西的始末

在巴西总统选举中落败的弗拉维奥•博索纳罗正面临洗钱调查。周一,他还坚称从未想过离开巴西。第二天,他便不见了踪影。

AI智能体也需要中层管理者

李开复:随着在企业中传递和对齐信息的成本大幅下降,负责履行这些职能的岗位也必须做出改变。

朝鲜劳工在网上被招募到俄罗斯工厂

对劳工输送渠道的调查报告揭示莫斯科与平壤日益深化的经济联系。

为什么美国“有产者”也感受到了经济压力?

马斯特斯:从房屋保险到草坪养护,各项住房成本都在上涨,导致近半数美国房主在财务上捉襟见肘。

“希望这一切赶紧结束”:选举广告狂轰滥炸让美国选民厌倦

距离中期选举仅剩一周,两党候选人密集投放攻击性广告。而承受广告狂轰滥炸的是日益恼火的选民。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×