In Ukraine, it’s all about the land

{"text":[[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":6.35,"text":"Could peace in Ukraine finally be on the horizon? Over the weekend trilateral peace talks were held in Abu Dhabi between Russia, Ukraine and the US. This is the first time that has happened since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022."}],[{"start":24.03,"text":"Encouragingly, the talks did not break down and seem set to reconvene next weekend. For now, the US has successfully positioned itself as an impartial mediator — rather then as a partisan on one side of the conflict. Both the Ukrainians and the Russians are also striving to sound engaged."}],[{"start":43.96,"text":"Speaking in Davos, just before the Abu Dhabi talks, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian president, said that he was now satisfied with the postwar security guarantees offered by the US. The big remaining issue is territory. As Zelenskyy put it: “It’s all about the land. This is the issue which is not solved yet.” Steve Witkoff, Trump’s main negotiator, had a similar assessment, telling his European counterparts in Davos that the peace deal is basically done — apart from the issue of territory."}],[{"start":79.03999999999999,"text":"Unfortunately, that is no small matter. Vladimir Putin continues to insist that the minimum that Russia can accept is possession of the whole of the Donbas."}],[{"start":90.13999999999999,"text":"The Russians currently control about 80 per cent of that region. But the remaining 20 per cent is known as Ukraine’s “fortress belt”. It contains fortified lines that the Ukrainians regard as indispensable to protecting their country from any future Russian aggression. In any case, the Ukrainians are bitterly resistant to the idea of surrendering territory that they have lost thousands of lives defending."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":117.66999999999999,"text":"There is no obvious way around this impasse. There would probably have to be a major shift on the battlefield to force a change in thinking in Moscow or Kyiv. The current assessment by western security officials is that Russia is taking staggering losses in the conflict. It is said that the Russian military sustained 30,000 casualties (killed and wounded) in December alone — with the Ukrainians losing just one soldier for every 25 Russian casualties. These casualty rates are attributed to Ukraine’s increasing skill in drone warfare and to Russia’s “meat-grinder” assaults — which pay little regard to the loss of human life."}],[{"start":160.51,"text":"This horrifying bloodbath has led to a reassessment of the direction of the war in western capitals. Last spring and summer the conventional wisdom — particularly among American officials — seemed to be that Ukraine was doomed to lose a war of attrition and that the collapse of Ukrainian forces could happen quite suddenly."}],[{"start":182.14,"text":"Now there are growing questions about Russia’s ability to sustain its war effort. For the first time in a while, the Kremlin is struggling to find the new soldiers it needs to replace those lost at the front. The size of signing-on bonuses offered to new recruits has surged — and more foreigners are being sought to fight on the Russian side. The Russian economy is also under increasing pressure — with the government’s financial reserves dwindling, growth faltering and inflation rising."}],[{"start":212.51999999999998,"text":"But while all these pressures are rising, western officials see no sign yet of a change of heart in the Kremlin. For Vladimir Putin, conquering the whole of the Donbas still seems to be a minimum requirement. These is also no indication Russia is yet prepared to accept western security guarantees that see European troops stationed on Ukrainian soil."}],[{"start":236.92,"text":"The Ukrainian side is also under severe pressure. Russian missile attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure deprived Kyiv and other cities of power and heating last week — when temperatures were at sub-zero levels. Zelenskyy’s willingness to engage in talks with the Russians partly stems from his desire not to antagonise Trump. But it also reflects a growing war weariness on the Ukrainian side."}],[{"start":263.15,"text":"European fears that the Trump administration is hopelessly biased towards Russia have receded in recent weeks. There are still concerns that Witkoff’s head can be turned by Putin during visits to Moscow. But, on the European side, there is real respect for the diplomatic work done by Jared Kushner — who is regarded as serious and diligent."}],[{"start":286.69,"text":"While some Europeans still object to the American insistence that Washington should be an even-handed mediator, rather than an ally of Ukraine, there is also a sense that Europe and the Trump administration can play complementary roles in attempting to end the war."}],[{"start":304.37,"text":"The Europeans can provide the financial and military assistance to keep the Ukrainians in the fight. The Americans can keep channels open to the Russians and sponsor the peace talks."}],[{"start":316.31,"text":"The worry expressed to me by one senior European official was not the old fear that the US will betray Ukraine. The new concern is that the Trump administration will lose patience and focus with a peace process that is likely to be frustrating and to eat up time and attention — just as other concerns, foreign and domestic, are crowding in on the Trump administration."}],[{"start":341.49,"text":"Negotiations to end a protracted and bitter conflict can take many years. Talks to end the Vietnam war began in 1968 and did not conclude until 1973. As the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches, the beginnings of a proper peace process are now in place. But, sadly, the chances are that the fighting will still be going on this time next year."}],[{"start":378.98,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1769476329_4295.mp3"}