Temperatures likely to breach record levels over next five years, WMO says

{"text":[[{"start":9.25,"text":"Global temperatures are expected to surpass record-breaking highs in the next five years, scientists say, as the world struggles to tackle climate change."}],[{"start":17.95,"text":"The latest report from the UN’s World Meteorological Organization, produced by the UK’s Met Office, also warned of more wet conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, including northern Europe, between now and 2030."}],[{"start":29.7,"text":"It said there was an 86 per cent chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 would surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, when the average global temperature hit 1.55C above the pre-industrial level."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":44.9,"text":"The WMO forecast comes as greenhouse gas emissions remain at a record level while the naturally occurring El Niño cycle in the Pacific Ocean, which typically leads to hotter temperatures, is expected to return this year. There was last an El Niño cycle from 2023 into 2024. "}],[{"start":62.8,"text":"The WMO said there was a 91 per cent chance that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year between 2026 and 2030, but a less than 1 per cent chance this would exceed 2C. "}],[{"start":81.44999999999999,"text":"Under the Paris Agreement, almost 200 countries agreed to limit the long-term global average surface temperature rise to well below 2C and ideally to 1.5C above the pre-industrial level, but this refers to long-term warming sustained over an extended period, typically assessed over 20 years."}],[{"start":101.1,"text":"Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report, said: “There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year.” "}],[{"start":114.69999999999999,"text":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) has put an 82 per cent chance on an El Niño event developing between now and July. Some scientists have warned of a so-called super El Niño, but the chances are put far less at about 35 per cent "}],[{"start":132.45,"text":"A super, or very strong, El Niño, is defined as a rise in sea temperatures of greater than 2C in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. Noaa notes that strong events do not always mean bigger weather and climate effects but do “make it more likely that certain impacts could occur”."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":149.95,"text":"The WMO predicted in 2023 for the first time that there was a 66 per cent chance that the annual mean global surface temperature would temporarily surpass 1.5C above the pre-industrial level in at least one year by 2027, a level that was reached just one year later. "}],[{"start":171.14999999999998,"text":"The past three years are the hottest on record, on the back of climate change with the additional effect of the El Niño weather event. "}],[{"start":178.95,"text":"In the latest report, the WMO said that it was likely, or a 75 per cent chance, that the 2026-2030 five-year mean would exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average. "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":194.04999999999998,"text":"The scientific community has repeatedly warned that temporary breaches of the 1.5C goal are expected to occur with increasing frequency as a result of a continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Breaching the long-term 1.5C level risks unleashing more extreme weather conditions."}],[{"start":213.1,"text":"Gareth Redmond-King, head of the international programme at Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, a green non-profit group, said the WMO’s report did not mean we will “pass the Paris Agreement goal but it is getting more likely”.  "}],[{"start":228,"text":"“With dangerous extremes harming our health, food security, and upping the cost of living already, at 1.3-1.4C, it is clear the next few years risk greater danger and cost,” he said."}],[{"start":242.15,"text":"The WMO report said while there would be wetter than average conditions at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere over the next five winters, rainfall would be reduced in the subtropics."}],[{"start":253.35,"text":"Its modelling also suggested wetter summers in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia, but dry anomalies over the Amazon.  "}],[{"start":262.05,"text":"The report is a synthesis of predictions contributed by 13 different institutes, including the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst and the Met Office. "}],[{"start":273.65000000000003,"text":"Temperatures in the Arctic were expected to be significantly above the global mean anomaly, at 2.8C above the average temperatures for 1991-2020 during the next five northern hemisphere winters. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"

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