{"text":[[{"start":7.05,"text":"The world has so far avoided the severe summer oil crisis that traders feared would follow the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with crude prices remaining below $100 a barrel despite little sign that energy flows through the crucial chokepoint are resuming."}],[{"start":22.95,"text":"Traders and analysts who warned in April that the world was approaching a “tipping point” that would result in soaring prices, fuel shortages and economic recession said the market has proven more resilient than expected after China slashed its crude imports and global stockpiles helped to offset the continuing disruption from the conflict in the Middle East."}],[{"start":42.8,"text":"Benchmark Brent crude climbed as high as $98 a barrel on Monday as Israel and Iran traded missile fire, but fell back to less than $93 on Tuesday morning — far below the levels seen in the early stages of the war despite the ongoing disruption to some of the world’s biggest oil producers in the Gulf. "}],[{"start":62.15,"text":"The reprieve has been driven largely by China, which traders believe cut its oil imports in May by roughly 5mn barrels a day, the equivalent of almost half the global supply deficit caused by the closure of the strait, as its refineries either scaled back their production or turned to domestic stockpiles in the face of spiralling prices."}],[{"start":80.5,"text":"But analysts say the market’s apparent stability rests on an unprecedented drawdown of inventories and emergency reserves that cannot continue indefinitely, and market resilience will be tested as demand peaks in the summer months."}],[{"start":93.4,"text":"“We’re in much, much better shape than most everybody thought we would be,” said Eugene Lindell of FGE NexantECA, a chemicals and energy advisory firm. “But that is no reason to be complacent because the underlying factor is still there.” "}],[{"start":109.4,"text":"He noted that stockpiles are being depleted not only in the US, which publishes weekly data showing the declines, but also “quite heavily” across Europe, which publishes far less information. "}],[{"start":122.30000000000001,"text":"Oil fell below $100 a barrel in late May, and has stayed there for nearly two weeks despite the continuing stalemate in the war."}],[{"start":131,"text":"“Trading below $100 after three months of closure of the strait is quite a surprise, no one would have bet that at the beginning,” said Frédéric Lasserre, head of market analysis at commodity trader Gunvor. "}],[{"start":142.9,"text":"“The key explanation is China. They have plenty of stock and they have no appetite to come into the market and buy at $80 or $90 a barrel plus, especially if you feel the strait might open and crude prices fall,” he added. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":156.65,"text":"As China has pulled back, Asian countries have found it easier to buy oil, easing the shortages in the region and reducing the pressure on global prices. "}],[{"start":166.20000000000002,"text":"“There is not much need now for prices to go higher, because in terms of solving the deficit, we are done. It is expensive for consumers, but this is not the dramatic situation that people were expecting,” Lasserre said. "}],[{"start":179.8,"text":"But others warned that this situation may not hold. Amrita Sen, founder of consultancy Energy Aspects, said the key region to watch is now the US, which has been shipping record amounts of fuel and crude to Europe and Asia, while draining its own reserves to a two-decade low. "}],[{"start":196.45000000000002,"text":"“The tightness is actually in the US because it has overexported,” said Sen. “If the US has to pull back, and they do not export as much, that is when you start to see the rest of the world panic.” "}],[{"start":209.10000000000002,"text":"American oil executives have sounded warnings in recent weeks that the status quo is unsustainable. "}],[{"start":215.20000000000002,"text":"“We’re approaching unheard-of inventory levels. I mean, really, really low levels. You can debate whether that’s going to hit those really low levels in two weeks or three weeks. But once you get to that point, you’ll see prices shoot up,” said Neil Chapman, a senior vice-president at ExxonMobil, at a conference organised by research firm Bernstein. "}],[{"start":234.85000000000002,"text":"Meanwhile, seasonal demand for fuel will accelerate in the coming weeks. While Chinese refineries have pulled back, in the rest of the world, refineries typically step up their production by around 4.5mn barrels a day as summer demand peaks, said Sen. "}],[{"start":249.95000000000002,"text":"Traders also cautioned that the current stability in the market hangs on China’s continued absence. If the world’s second-largest economy starts bidding for oil again, and the strait remains closed, available supply could tighten rapidly. "}],[{"start":263.25,"text":"“How long does the strait remain closed now?” asked Lasserre. “If it is another two weeks, maybe we will escape the worst, which is a recession at the global level. If it is another three months, I doubt we can escape.”"}],[{"start":283.09999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781002412_7247.mp3"}