{"text":[[{"start":11.65,"text":"Oil prices slid on hopes that the US-Iran agreement could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz even as analysts warned that oil flows may recover only slowly and remain vulnerable to renewed disruption."}],[{"start":25.4,"text":"Donald Trump said on Sunday that an agreement had been reached to gradually reopen the strategic waterway. For that to happen, Iran must demine the waterway and refrain from charging any tolls and the US must lift the naval blockade it imposed on ships moving in and out of Iranian ports. "}],[{"start":43.4,"text":"“I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines,” the US president said on social media. “Let the oil flow!”"}],[{"start":59.7,"text":"Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, was down 4.7 per cent at $83.21 in Asian trade. "}],[{"start":68.3,"text":"Shipping industry bodies estimate that about 500 merchant vessels remain in the Gulf after more than three months of conflict, with traffic through the strait, which normally handles about a fifth of global oil trade, reduced to a trickle."}],[{"start":82.45,"text":"A typical commercial transit through the waterway takes about eight hours, meaning any effort to clear the backlog would be gradual, particularly if vessels are required to sail under restricted conditions or co-ordinated transit systems."}],[{"start":95.75,"text":"The strait is the main export route for Gulf crude producers and Qatar’s LNG exports, making any disruption a major concern for global energy markets."}],[{"start":105.1,"text":"Before the conflict, about 130 ships passed through it each day. Traffic has since collapsed after repeated attacks on commercial vessels and mounting concerns over the safety of crews and cargoes."}],[{"start":116.85,"text":"Since the conflict began on February 28, 46 ships have been attacked, according to shipping industry estimates, while Iran has taken two container vessels hostage."}],[{"start":128.04999999999998,"text":"Major shipping groups including the International Chamber of Shipping and Bimco have issued guidance for shipowners in the event that the strait reopens, warning that “simultaneous, uncoordinated transits” could create congestion, “erratic manoeuvring” and “unpredictable” vessel movements. Military oversight was expected to remain limited."}],[{"start":148.6,"text":"Some shipowners have continued to allow their vessels to sail through Hormuz but most have been spooked by reports of mines in the strait, particularly following US strikes on Iranian boats allegedly laying mines last month."}],[{"start":163.04999999999998,"text":"The UK and other European navies are readying ships in the Mediterranean to assist with mine-clearing efforts."}],[{"start":169.29999999999998,"text":"Even before reports of a possible agreement emerged, analysts had warned that shipowners were likely to remain cautious if Iran was seen to retain operational control over the waterway."}],[{"start":180.79999999999998,"text":"Martin Kelly, head of advisory at EOS Risk Group, said that he was “pessimistic” about the solidity of any deal given the escalation of tit-for-tat attacks during the current ceasefire."}],[{"start":192.49999999999997,"text":"“Each time we see this cycle we see a little bit more escalation each time,” he said."}],[{"start":197.89999999999998,"text":"Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, compared the potential reopening to shipping in the Red Sea, where traffic remains well below pre-conflict levels despite a US agreement with the Houthis last year."}],[{"start":213.7,"text":"“Red Sea traffic is currently running around 56 per cent lower than pre-conflict levels,” Croft wrote in a note, adding that many major shipping companies continued to avoid the route because of concerns over the security of the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint."}],[{"start":228.75,"text":"She added that even reaching reduced traffic levels “would likely take an extended period of time, given the multi-week vessel logistics operations that would follow an opening”."}],[{"start":239.1,"text":"The reopening of the strait would follow multiple failed attempts, including one that ended with several ships being struck by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in April. The US military escorted two US-flagged vessels through the waterway under heavy protection last month."}],[{"start":255.6,"text":"The US has also provided some air cover to ships willing to attempt the transit via the Omani coastline. Some ships have taken this route in recent weeks without their GPS signal switched on."}],[{"start":267.3,"text":"Saul Kavonic, an energy analyst at MST Financial, said that even under an optimistic scenario “oil markets will remain tight through 2027” because of the time required to restore shipping logistics, repair damaged energy infrastructure and rebuild depleted oil inventories."}],[{"start":283.7,"text":"“This is just the start of a long complicated process to restore oil flows,” Kavonic said. “There may only be a slow and partial opening of the Strait of Hormuz, that could be threatened with closure at any time."}],[{"start":297.55,"text":"“Given Trump has left Iran in effective control of the strait, the Sword of Damocles will hang over passage through the strait going forward, at risk of disruption by Iran at any time,” he added."}],[{"start":317.3,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1781501703_9739.mp3"}