{"text":[[{"start":6.4,"text":"Come in number 58, your time is up. For months now Sir Keir Starmer’s resignation has been a matter of when not whether. Whatever the outcome of the Makerfield by-election, Starmer faced a challenge and near-certain defeat. The scale of Andy Burnham’s victory ensured a rout."}],[{"start":24,"text":"But even more than the return of the Manchester mayor, Starmer’s absurdly early departure — he announced his exit less than two years after a huge election victory — is down to one man, Nigel Farage. It is the threat of Reform UK that has so panicked Labour MPs. The stakes now seem so much higher than when defeat simply meant the return of the Conservatives. Senior ministers see Farage’s party as a unique threat to the country and they were simply not prepared to give Starmer any more time against such a malign challenge."}],[{"start":56.6,"text":"The irony is that this comes after Reform had its worst week in years, not only losing heavily in Makerfield but also seeing the Conservatives win a by-election in Scotland. But the Makerfield defeat is down to the man who will now replace Starmer, probably by mid-July."}],[{"start":74.85,"text":"While fear of Farage increased the desperation, Starmer was also the architect of his own fall. His much-vaunted managerial skills never materialised. His political touch was absent. He delegated all economics to his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who will accompany him out of the door, and all party politics to his former chief strategist Morgan McSweeney."}],[{"start":96.05,"text":"From the disastrous decision to cut winter fuel payments for the elderly, to badly botched welfare reforms, the substantial tax rises on business and the catastrophic choice of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, his worst errors came from a failure to fully engage with the politics of his policies. Having saved Labour from Corbynism, Starmer simply proved to be a very poor premier. "}],[{"start":120.35,"text":"This was allied to a belief in absolute discipline over his party. At first it worked and then, inevitably, it didn’t, not least because MPs saw he would cave under pressure. It is no small irony that in his departure speech he claimed as his own a number of measures forced on him by his MPs."}],[{"start":138.5,"text":"Above all, Starmer was never able to inspire hope. His party tolerated him because he looked like a winner. Once they concluded that, unlike Tony Blair, he could only pull off the trick once, the clock was ticking."}],[{"start":151.95,"text":"What comes next is Burnham. Wes Streeting’s announcement that he will not stand makes a coronation rather than a contest almost inevitable."}],[{"start":161,"text":"The central question now is what a Burnham premiership will mean. Blair won and held power by forcing Labour to accept the economic and political realities bequeathed by Thatcherism. Starmer tried to repeat this and failed. "}],[{"start":176.7,"text":"But Labour’s heart remains significantly to the left and Burnham is likely to make a significant move in that direction. He has spoken of wanting to harness the political conscience of the Parliamentary Labour Party, an outlook that can only point to higher taxes and more state intervention."}],[{"start":193.35,"text":"A government that was already significantly more leftwing than most people credit, will shift back into its ideological comfort zone as it ponders wealth taxes, windfall taxes and nationalisations (or at least significantly heavier regulation). Voters and, less lovably, activists who deserted the party for the hard-left Greens will start to slink back. "}],[{"start":215.75,"text":"Streeting’s support, along with the backing of the home secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Josh Simons, the man who stood aside for him in Makerfield, create a more Blairite pole within the Burnham tent. But Burnham’s closest allies, Louise Haigh, Lucy Powell and Lisa Nandy, as well as former minister Miatta Fahnbulleh, pull in a different direction."}],[{"start":236.65,"text":"Reform offers a nostalgic version of Britain. But so does Burnham. He pines for the days before Thatcherism, declaring the last 40 years a mistake. So far there has been very little thinking about future challenges and possibilities, not least AI."}],[{"start":251.70000000000002,"text":"A defining test is whether he will make Ed Miliband his chancellor or go for someone seemingly less threatening to markets. Streeting has pitched for the job but Miliband is closer to Burnham’s own thinking. The economic realities of a country reaching its borrowing limits but with revenue nowhere near what Labour wishes to spend do not disappear with a change of leader. Nor do questions about whether he is tough enough to grasp the welfare nettle. "}],[{"start":275.5,"text":"The next four weeks will be a curious time as Labour and the UK simply wait for Andy. Every word from Burnham, every visitor, every pamphlet that seems to bear his imprimatur will be scrutinised for clues of what comes next."}],[{"start":289.5,"text":"There are those who argue for an early election. It is not a constitutional requirement but it would offer a fresh mandate. But MPs will not want one and voters do not tend to reward parties with huge majorities who go early. "}],[{"start":304.15,"text":"What Burnham has achieved so far took guts and ruthlessness, two essential qualities. But this has been the easy part. The financial and public service challenges remain the same and popularity fades fast. There is no guarantee we won’t see number 60 before the next election."}],[{"start":327.4,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782173222_3442.mp3"}