{"text":[[{"start":4.62,"text":"Britain’s long-delayed defence investment plan is one of the last big announcements from outgoing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer. It exemplifies the inability of his cabinet to face up adequately to the hard choices of government. The plan has been spruced up since the resignation earlier this month of defence secretary John Healey (which helped seal Starmer’s fate); the extra spending over the next four years is upped by £1.5bn to £15bn. Yet Healey’s criticism holds true: the long-delayed plan remains well short of what was required. The presumptive next prime minister, Andy Burnham, will somehow need to find more money."}],[{"start":43.32,"text":"The shape of the plan shows lessons have been learned from how the Ukraine and Iran conflicts have reshaped war. Some £5bn will be invested into a “drone transformation” to deliver uncrewed and autonomous weapons for all services. Rather than ageing destroyers and frigates being replaced, the navy will procure six “hybrid” vessels designed as mother ships for uncrewed systems."}],[{"start":65.64,"text":"A necessary balance is struck with continuing to fund the broader spectrum of capabilities, including high-end projects such as the Aukus submarine project. But military experts warn of an excessive focus on long-term programmes designed to counter Chinese capabilities and project power into the Asia-Pacific, rather than preparing to fight — or preferably deter — a conflict with Russia, which Nato has warned could happen by 2030."}],[{"start":90.84,"text":"Starmer rightly insisted that ensuring the investment is effective will require a revamp of shambolic procurement procedures that have resulted in defence spending being seen as a “bottomless pit”. Too much money has been wasted on mishandled projects such as the £6.3bn Ajax armoured vehicle programme. The investment in drones will also require setting up a new ecosystem of technological development and manufacturing capacity."}],[{"start":115.8,"text":"The prime minister claimed to have made hard choices by sacrificing some road and energy investments to boost the defence package. Yet his plan still falls far below the additional £28bn that defence officials warned was needed to fully fund all 62 recommendations of last year’s Strategic Defence Review, which the government accepted."}],[{"start":135.56,"text":"The year-long hiatus between the review and the investment plan intended to fund it also created a vacuum of uncertainty that has put a heavy strain on the UK defence industrial base, especially the agile start-ups needed to deliver innovative technologies. Neither the speed of action nor the amount of investment has matched the urgency of the rhetoric."}],[{"start":154.76,"text":"UK defence spending is now projected to reach 2.7 per cent of GDP by 2029-30. But hitting 3 per cent is only a “priority” for the next multiyear spending plan and the commitment to hit the 3.5 per cent Nato target by 2035 is vague. That trajectory will turn Britain, long a Nato frontrunner on defence spending as a proportion of GDP, into a mid-tier country behind Poland, Germany, and the Baltic and Nordic nations. All are closer to Russia than Britain, but the UK has no less a responsibility to protect its citizens and prepare for a conflict that would drag in all Nato members. If Britain is to continue to provide the diplomatic leadership that has been one of Starmer’s strengths on issues such as Ukraine, moreover, it will have to show it is ready to contribute its share towards Europe’s defence."}],[{"start":205.84,"text":"Starmer suggested Burnham could use the defence plan as a “platform” to find more funding, but warned that the idea of “defence bonds”, circulating in Whitehall, was still a form of borrowing that could push up interest rates. In reality, the new premier will have to make savings, for example, from the soaring welfare budget. Whether he can succeed here, where the outgoing UK leader has failed, will be a defining test of the Burnham premiership."}],[{"start":230.76,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1782879268_4521.mp3"}