Iran’s supreme leader tightens grip with top appointments - FT中文网
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战争

Iran’s supreme leader tightens grip with top appointments

A raft of senior military and regime moves come as Tehran hardens its rhetoric over deal with US
00:00

{"text":[[{"start":9.52,"text":"In the early 1980s, as Iran’s nascent Islamic regime was battling for survival in a war with Iraq, Mohsen Rezaei made his name on the front lines as a young and hawkish commander of the newly formed Revolutionary Guards."}],[{"start":24.2,"text":"While other leaders pushed for a settlement, Rezaei argued that Iran should fight on — even after it recaptured territory seized by the late Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Tehran and Baghdad finally agreed a ceasefire in 1988, both countries worn down by the devastating conflict."}],[{"start":41.48,"text":"Nearly four decades later, Rezaei is once again poised to fight an existential battle for the Islamic republic. Appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, the 71-year-old hardliner is now in effect the republic’s top security official — with a critical voice in determining the trajectory of war with the US."}],[{"start":61.5,"text":"The move, which cements his place as one of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s top lieutenants, comes as Iran’s regime hardens its rhetoric over a diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get the US and Iran back to negotiations — leaving those efforts floundering."}],[{"start":77.6,"text":"On Saturday, a day before Rezaei’s appointment was announced, his predecessor Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr announced a string of conditions he insisted the US should meet before Iran would agree to reopen the strait."}],[{"start":89.64,"text":"The list included the US “permanently” ending the war against Iran and regional proxies, lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and withdrawing American forces from the vicinity of the republic. He also said the US should pay “compensation” for this war and the 12-day Israeli-US conflict last year, lift sanctions and unfreeze Iran’s assets held overseas."}],[{"start":111.94,"text":"No reason was given for Zolghadr’s abrupt departure a day later as others, including foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, made similar comments about conditions and compensation. Zolghadr, also a hardliner, was given a new role as a political adviser to Khamenei."}],[{"start":127.36,"text":"But analysts seeking to interpret the changes in Iran’s opaque, complex theocratic system viewed them as a sign that Khamenei — who became supreme leader in March, 10 days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in the first strikes of the US-Israeli war — was consolidating his power."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

Mohsen Rezaei
"}],[{"start":145.04,"text":"Wounded in that strike, Mojtaba has not been seen or heard from in public since the war erupted, instead communicating via written statements from an unknown secure location."}],[{"start":155.92,"text":"On Monday, Khamenei announced more security appointments, including formalising the positions of top military and guards leaders who took up their posts after their predecessors were killed during the war. Analysts interpreted this as a further sign of Khamenei stamping his mark on the regime."}],[{"start":173.52,"text":"Ali Vaez, an Iran expert at the Crisis Group think-tank, said the move to elevate Rezaei suggested Khamenei was seeking to create a counterbalance to Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker who led earlier negotiations with the US and has become one of the most influential wartime civilian leaders."}],[{"start":190.92,"text":"“Rezaei is a member of the old guard, and a mentor to Mojtaba Khamenei. I think he’s more trusted by him than Zolghadr, who is closer to Ghalibaf,” Vaez said. “If there is one thing that Mojtaba has learnt from his father, it is that regardless of how much you trust people in the inner circle, no one should gain too much power to be able to eclipse the supreme leader.”"}],[{"start":212.84,"text":"Inside Iran, the official messaging was that Rezaei’s experience would bolster the republic’s multi-layered decision-making process as it navigates the crisis."}],[{"start":221.36,"text":"In addition to 16 years as a guards commander, during which he oversaw its transformation from a militia to the republic’s most powerful military force, Rezaei held positions helping shape macroeconomic and political policies. He also mounted several failed campaigns for the presidency."}],[{"start":238.96,"text":"Analysts say they do not expect any significant shift in policy towards the US or negotiations to end the war, which is marked by Tehran’s deep distrust of President Donald Trump and the regime’s belief it has the upper hand."}],[{"start":251.84,"text":"Iran’s leaders are loath to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — its main source of leverage — without securing guarantees that the US will meet its commitments under any deal, analysts say."}],[{"start":260.52,"text":"But Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who also chairs the security council, on Saturday advocated for a deal, saying it was “the best time to reach an agreement since there is cohesion, strength and unity in the country”."}],[{"start":274.52,"text":"However, the reformist politician, and those in his government who worry about the war’s dire economic consequences and are more eager for a settlement, are deemed to have less influence than military commanders and more hardline leaders."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":289.48,"text":"Rezaei, who was Khamenei’s military adviser, has voiced his scepticism about talks with the US since the warring parties first agreed an April 8 ceasefire. A week after the truce, he said any extension of the ceasefire was not “in our interest”."}],[{"start":304.76,"text":"“This is my personal opinion. It is up to the authorities to decide on this, but I am absolutely opposed to continuing the ceasefire,” he said. “A ceasefire must take place only after all agreements have been made.”"}],[{"start":317.68,"text":"After a memorandum of understanding the US and Iran had signed in June unravelled, he blamed Washington for violating that interim agreement."}],[{"start":326.16,"text":"The MoU was intended to extend the April truce by 60 days, gradually reopen the strait and lay the foundations for talks on a final settlement, including a deal on Iran’s nuclear programme."}],[{"start":337.78,"text":"But it collapsed after Iran targeted ships using what it said was an “unauthorised” channel along Oman’s coast. The attacks triggered a wave of escalatory tit-for-tat strikes between the US and Iran."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
Motorcyclists drive past Iranian missiles ‘Zolfaghar’ on display above a banner depicting US President Trump at Azadi Square in Tehran
"}],[{"start":349.8,"text":"Tehran then held talks with Muscat to agree on a temporary route through the waterway, which diplomats hoped would resolve the stand-off and lead to a return to the MoU. Last week Iranian diplomats said they were close to the final stages of a deal with Oman to manage the strait, but pointedly said that was separate from reopening the strait and no agreement has been sealed."}],[{"start":370.44,"text":"Rezaei said last week that diplomatic efforts with the Trump administration should continue — “but the US must change its behaviour in order . . . to prove that it is serious about diplomacy”."}],[{"start":381.72,"text":"He previously accused the US of violating the MoU by not halting Israeli attacks against Lebanese militants Hizbollah and leaving Iranian assets frozen."}],[{"start":391.04,"text":"Analysts say this goes to the core of Tehran’s conditions: a fear that if Iran opens the strait, the US will renege on its part of the deal and that Trump could launch a new round of attacks after November’s midterm elections."}],[{"start":405.28,"text":"Most of the conditions Iran has set, including the withdrawal of US forces from the vicinity of the republic and the lifting of all sanctions, are listed in the MoU. But they are contingent on a final settlement that would involve complex and lengthy negotiations between two foes deeply distrustful of each other."}],[{"start":424.14,"text":"“The Islamic republic has realised that if it gives in now, it could lose control over the strait, and then Tehran would have nothing left that it could use as leverage against Washington,” said Sayed Laylez, an Iranian analyst. “That is why they are trying to extract concessions from the US.”"}],[{"start":440.92,"text":"On Monday, Trump retorted on Truth Social that the US would respond to Iran’s demand for reparations by “likewise demanding compensation from Iran, for all of the people that they have killed and gravely wounded”."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
US marines on board a tanker in the Gulf of Oman
"}],[{"start":453.74,"text":"For Rezaei’s generation, the experiences — and scars — of the Iran-Iraq war still loom large. When a ceasefire with Saddam was finally reached, it came after Rezaei presented Iran’s leadership with a grim assessment of military requirements if it were to continue fighting — resources the republic lacked."}],[{"start":472.52,"text":"For the US, his appointment to security is a signal that the negotiations will get tougher, said Mehrzad Boroujerdi, an Iranian-American academic at Missouri University of Science and Technology."}],[{"start":483.46,"text":"“It’s signalling . . . ‘Don’t expect any sort of concession from us, or if we are going to make concessions we want something of equal value from the US’,” said Boroujerdi."}],[{"start":492.84,"text":"“It’s not one guy calling the shots . . . you have some serious heavyweights sitting in that council with him. But these guys [the hardliners] will have the upper hand.”"}],[{"start":506.06,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786416980_4483.mp3"}

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