{"text":[[{"start":7.24,"text":"For some months, the conflict between Iran and the US has teetered between war and peace. Efforts to find a diplomatic solution were interspersed with bouts of fighting. But over the past week, fighting in the Gulf has dramatically expanded, while peacemaking efforts have foundered."}],[{"start":24.32,"text":"The seizure of most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast by the Houthi militia, which is closely allied to Iran, has switched attention to a new front in the conflict. The Houthis also attacked Saudi energy infrastructure. Their actions coincided with a drone attack that forced the closure of the East-West oil pipeline crossing Saudi Arabia. That assault was apparently launched from Iraq — where Iranian-backed Shia militias are active. Days later talks between Iran and the Gulf states, aimed at opening the Strait of Hormuz, were postponed."}],[{"start":56.4,"text":"With fighting spreading, Saudi Arabia now finds itself on the frontline — endangering the kingdom’s ability to export oil and the grand development plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS. Further restrictions on energy supplies are emerging just as the western world heads into winter. That, in turn, undermines the Trump administration’s claim that the US is gradually gaining the upper hand in its struggle with Iran."}],[{"start":81.96,"text":"The US-Iran war can be seen as a three-dimensional conflict. The first dimension is the battlefield. The second is the economic conflict. The third is the battle of narratives. All three are linked and currently turning against the US."}],[{"start":97.76,"text":"When the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, they believed their military superiority was so overwhelming that they would win easily. But Iran’s ability to withstand the first assault — and then to close the Strait of Hormuz and attack the Gulf states — dispelled the short-war illusion."}],[{"start":115.44,"text":"The closure of the strait and America’s counter-blockade of Iran elevated the second dimension of the war — the economic struggle. By blocking oil exports and attacking Gulf nations, the Iranians hoped to inflict enough economic pain to end the war on their terms."}],[{"start":131.68,"text":"Having reluctantly concluded that there is no easy military way to completely reopen Hormuz, the US resorted to its own form of economic warfare. The US blockade is intended to collapse the Iranian economy by choking off the country’s oil exports."}],[{"start":146.16,"text":"Until the Houthis’ intervention, the White House was sounding increasingly confident that it could win the economic battle. Enough oil was reaching the global market to keep the price below the $100 a barrel level. US efforts to protect vessels passing through Hormuz seem to have raised oil shipments to roughly one-third of prewar levels. And the Saudis and the Gulf states had sought a way around the Strait of Hormuz — piping oil to Red Sea ports and the Gulf of Oman. The Houthis’ advances and the attack on the East-West pipeline pose an obvious threat to that alternative route. If there are further attacks on the pipeline — or on ships passing through the narrow Bab al-Mandeb Strait — then supplies of Gulf energy to the west may be choked off much more completely."}],[{"start":192.8,"text":"The Iranian economy is suffering badly — with inflation soaring and the currency sagging. But for economic warfare to work, it has to translate into political pressure. And Iran’s authoritarian system shields its leaders from that. The Iranian regime shot and killed thousands of its own people in the streets earlier this year and continues to regularly execute dissidents. By contrast, the Trump administration faces crucial midterm elections and is well aware that soaring petrol prices will undermine support for the Republicans. The Gulf states are also not used to economic hardship. The attack on the Saudi pipeline is a disconcerting reminder of the vulnerability of much of the Gulf’s infrastructure."}],[{"start":235.8,"text":"These latest developments in the military and economic dimensions of the war will change the third dimension — the battle of narratives. It is important for both the US and Iran to persuade their own people and the wider world that they have the upper hand. The side that loses the battle of narratives risks also losing the political and diplomatic initiative."}],[{"start":256,"text":"The US will now want to seize that initiative back. But it is significant that Donald Trump apparently turned down requests from MBS for immediate military strikes on the Houthis."}],[{"start":266.52,"text":"That suggests that the US is increasingly aware of the limits of what it can achieve through military force. The Houthis are particularly tough opponents. They have been fighting — on and off — for more than 20 years. With help from Iran, they have survived assaults from much richer nations with much better-equipped militaries — including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the US and Israel."}],[{"start":288.92,"text":"The Houthis, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, have sometimes been dismissed as unsophisticated fanatics. But crude comparisons of military equipment cannot tell the whole story. Like the Taliban, the Houthis have motivation and local knowledge on their side and are proving impossible to subdue."}],[{"start":307.36,"text":"In his first term, Trump concluded that the Taliban could not be defeated — and negotiated the peace deal that eventually led to America’s ignominious withdrawal from Kabul in 2021. Now the US president may have to decide if he wants to take on the Houthis — as well as Iran. Or if, once again, the US needs to cut its losses."}],[{"start":328.28,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789431366_8411.mp3"}