AI boom obscuring global trade disruptions, warns WTO chief

{"text":[[{"start":8.212,"text":"Trade in AI-related products is “masking” the negative impacts of Donald Trump’s tariffs and other upheavals in trade, the head of the World Trade Organization has warned."}],[{"start":17.806,"text":"Trade in goods such as semiconductors, chemicals and industrial equipment linked to AI grew 42 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 from a year earlier, according to the latest WTO data. That compared with an expansion of just 7 per cent for non-AI-related goods trade."}],[{"start":34.88,"text":"“AI trade is masking the impact of tariffs and all the other disruptions facing world trade,” Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director-general of the WTO, told the FT in Geneva. “If AI is a bubble, then it will not be able to sustain this trade growth. We need to be cautious to see how sustained this driver of trade will be,” Okonjo-Iweala warned."}],[{"start":55.88,"text":"The IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva said last month that AI investment was helping the global economy to weather the energy shock triggered by conflict in the Middle East better than feared. However, oil prices have since surged back above $100 a barrel amid widening fears over the security of exports from the region."}],[{"start":75.52,"text":"Okonjo-Iweala’s comments also come after tech bosses including Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and OpenAI’s Sam Altman said the industry must “slow the pace” of AI development, thrusting the debate over its safety into the mainstream."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":89.163,"text":"Major technology companies are projected to invest nearly $800bn in the AI build-out in 2026, according to Bank of America Global Research, although the recent calls for caution have raised the prospect of a potential investment slowdown."}],[{"start":104.48,"text":"Last year the scale of the AI trade surge caught WTO economists by surprise. After initially forecasting 2.5 per cent growth for world goods trade for 2025, the final figure came in at 4.6 per cent, with the gap largely attributed to trade in “AI-enabling” goods used to build data centres."}],[{"start":122.72,"text":"Okonjo-Iweala, a former Nigerian finance minister, said that the boom showed no signs of slowing down so far — accounting for almost 19 per cent of world merchandise trade in the first quarter of 2026 — but was unevenly spread."}],[{"start":133.551,"text":"“The gains from this are concentrated. Asia accounted for over 60 per cent of the AI-enabling trade in 2025 . . .[while] North America accounted for 76 per cent of global venture capital last year,” she said."}],[{"start":149.24,"text":"The WTO argues that AI, which is increasingly regulated behind national borders, is an example of a field that needs greater multilateral co-operation."}],[{"start":158.597,"text":"However, as the custodian and arbiter of global trade rules, the WTO has been battling to remain relevant in the face of Trump’s new tariff war and global trade imbalances caused by China’s manufacturing boom."}],[{"start":172.32,"text":"With the multilateral trading environment increasingly under strain, Okonjo-Iweala warned this week that failure to modernise the trading system could reduce global output by up to 10 per cent by 2050, citing economic modelling in the organisation’s annual World Trade Report."}],[{"start":189.44,"text":"Attempts to kick-start WTO reform ended in disarray in March when world trade ministers failed to agree a roadmap for reform at their biennial Ministerial Conference."}],[{"start":201.16,"text":"However, Okonjo-Iweala strongly rejected the suggestion that WTO reform was a lost cause, noting that talks have since restarted at the organisation’s Geneva headquarters."}],[{"start":210.36,"text":"“For me what has changed is the acceptance by members now that the reforms are necessary, and that [the] status quo is not an option,” she said."}],[{"start":220.28,"text":"Data visualisation by Keith Fray in London"}],[{"start":226.68,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1789644400_1739.mp3"}