BHP has warned of a $1.7bn cost overrun in the development of its Canadian fertiliser site, dealing a blow to the world’s most valuable mining company as it tries to diversify beyond coal and iron ore.
The Australian miner has pushed back first production at its Jansen potash site in the western province of Saskatchewan until mid-2027 and warned that capital expenditure for the project would rise to as much as $7.4bn from its previous guidance of $5.7bn.
It had previously expected to start producing fertiliser at Jansen by the end of 2026 but said inflation and design changes had led to cost increases and delays. The company also put development of a second stage of the project under review, pushing back production by two years until 2031.
The execution problems at Jansen could cloud BHP’s expansion into commodities such as potash and copper, a key part of chief executive Mike Henry’s strategy to reduce exposure to its traditional strengths of coal and iron ore in favour of metals and minerals that are expected to play a leading role in the energy transition from oil and gas.
The world’s biggest miner by market capitalisation has already invested $4.5bn into Jansen, which is 68 per cent complete, and a further $400mn into the project’s second stage.
However, investors and rivals have expressed concerns about saturation in the fertiliser market since BHP began pursuing potash a decade ago. The company was forced to defend itself in 2017 after activist investor Elliott expressed “deep concerns” over the Australian company’s move into the commodity.
The Jansen issues came as BHP delivered a strong production report for the year to June that showed record output of iron ore and copper from its operations in Western Australia and Chile.
The company said commodity demand had “remained resilient so far in 2025”, with copper and steel benefiting from China’s accelerated investment in renewable energy and electric vehicles despite a sharp decline in trade with the US.
BHP said it expected economic stimulus efforts in the US and China to help mitigate “slower economic growth and a fragmenting trading system”.