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{"text":[[{"start":9.35,"text":"Economists expect the inflation shock driven by the Iran war to be less severe than the surge in prices during the 2022 energy crisis, according to an FT analysis."}],[{"start":20.5,"text":"A FT review of forecasts collated by Consensus Economics shows that inflation projections have on average increased by 0.8 percentage points since the Middle East conflict began in late February. This is far below the 2.3 percentage point rise in economists’ forecasts three months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which triggered a race in Europe to secure alternative gas supplies. "}],[{"start":48.95,"text":"Downgrades to global economic growth projections have also so far been smaller than at a similar stage of the 2022 crisis, the analysis shows. "}],[{"start":58.85,"text":"The modest adjustments so far this year come despite warnings from the International Energy Agency that the world faces its worst-ever energy crisis because of the near closure of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. "}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":71.2,"text":"The limited changes reflect a bet that inflation dangers will be less acute because the world economy entered the crisis with less momentum than in the upswing after the Covid-19 pandemic. Job markets are now cooler in many countries, and gains in gas prices have been far less steep this year than during the 2022 clampdown on Russian energy flows. "}],[{"start":94.2,"text":"“The global economy is extremely resilient in its ability to respond flexibly to shocks,” said Nathan Sheets, global chief economist at Citigroup. “It takes a licking and it keeps on ticking: It just keeps pushing forward.” "}],[{"start":107.95,"text":"The findings also reflect optimism among many analysts that the Middle East crisis will be resolved soon enough to avoid deeper disruptions to global gas and oil flows. "}],[{"start":119.45,"text":"US officials have said they are nearing a deal with Iran that would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although energy analysts have warned of long-lasting disruption from the conflict. "}],[{"start":132.3,"text":"“Forecast revisions after the Iran war are more contained than after Ukraine,” said Jumana Saleheen, head of Vanguard’s investment strategy group in Europe. “Where post-Covid demand amplified inflationary pressure in 2022, AI optimism is today acting as a counterweight.” "}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":150.15,"text":"In May 2022, economists were predicting global inflation of 6.5 per cent, twice the pace predicted in the most recent Consensus Economics forecast published earlier this month. "}],[{"start":162.95000000000002,"text":"By December 2022, economists were estimating inflation would be 7.5 per cent that year, Consensus said. "}],[{"start":171.25000000000003,"text":"Holger Schmieding, an economist at Berenberg Bank, explained that the chances of a resolution to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remain higher than the close-to-zero probability in the autumn of 2022 that gas flows from Russia to Europe would return to normal levels and that western capitals would lift their sanctions against Moscow."}],[{"start":191.10000000000002,"text":"“The Putin shock came in a situation that was highly inflationary already with pent-up demand meeting lingering post-pandemic supply restrictions. This time, the overall backdrop is far less inflationary than in 2022, especially in the Eurozone,” said Schmieding."}],[{"start":208.15000000000003,"text":"The price of Brent crude shot to over $100 per barrel after the start of the Iran war, as it did in 2022, even if it has now fallen on news of US-Iran deal talks. But the benchmark European gas price peaked this year at around €60 per megawatt-hour (MWh), and is currently below €50/MWh. In the summer of 2022 it rose to over €300 per megawatt-hour. "}],[{"start":236.45000000000005,"text":"“This is an oil and not — yet — a natural gas crisis, where 2022 was very much both,” said James Smith, economist at bank ING. "}],[{"start":246.40000000000003,"text":"Job markets in many countries are “significantly cooler,” he added, noting that “back in early 2022, developed economies were still riding on the coattails of big fiscal interventions during Covid”. "}],[{"start":258.25000000000006,"text":"Analysts had trimmed their full-year global GDP growth forecasts by an average of only 0.3 percentage points as of May 11, compared with 0.9 percentage points at a similar point in the 2022 crisis. "}],[{"start":272.80000000000007,"text":"However, full-year growth forecasts then were still firmer than they are now, with an expansion of 3.1 per cent pencilled in by economists in May 2022. That compares with 2.5 per cent now. "}],[{"start":285.75000000000006,"text":"Consensus Economics calculates the global figures based on the size of over 100 economies it tracks at the average 2020 dollar exchange rates. The figure includes developed and developing countries, reflecting many factors beyond the energy crises."}],[{"start":300.40000000000003,"text":"Before the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, inflation was already more than double the target in many countries, broad money growth was in the double-digit range, global supply chains were disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic, and labour markets were very tight, explained Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at investment company T Rowe Price. "}],[{"start":322.1,"text":"“The energy price shock exacerbated an already inflationary environment,” he said."}],[{"start":328.45000000000005,"text":"Instead, this year, inflation rates are closer to the target range in most countries, monetary policy has been tight and global supply chains remain resilient. High debt levels are forcing most governments to limit their support to the hardest-hit businesses and consumers, and labour supply is relatively loose."}],[{"start":348.1,"text":"Economists raised their US inflation forecast for 2022 by 2 percentage points between February and May that year, compared with a 0.9 percentage point increase over the same period this year. "}],[{"start":361.05,"text":"In the UK, the 2.4 percentage point upgrade to inflation in February to May 2022 compares with a 0.9 percentage point lift this year. The hit to growth outlooks is also much smaller. "}],[{"start":374.45,"text":"“We have trimmed rather than slashed our 2026 UK GDP forecast,” said Philip Shaw, economist at the bank Investec, as the “peak in inflation should be much more contained this time”."}],[{"start":392.7,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1780299294_7312.mp3"}