{"text":[[{"start":9.25,"text":"The UK’s borrowing costs have climbed back above 5 per cent for the first time since May, as escalating hostilities between the US and Iran stoke a renewed global sell-off in government bonds just days before Andy Burnham is set to become prime minister. Ten-year gilt yields rose 0.06 percentage points to 5.03 per cent on Tuesday after the US launched fresh strikes against Iran, while Tehran targeted tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Bond yields rise as prices fall."}],[{"start":41.5,"text":"The sell-off in gilts puts pressure on Burnham, who is set to take over from Sir Keir Starmer as prime minister on July 20. He will inherit a bond market that has proved especially sensitive to rising oil and gas prices, due to the UK’s energy mix and because inflation was already elevated going into the conflict."}],[{"start":61.2,"text":"Tuesday’s rise takes borrowing costs closer to the 5.2 per cent reached in May, their highest level since 2008."}],[{"start":71,"text":"“For Burnham, every move higher in oil and gas prices is a headache,” said Matthew Amis, investment director at Aberdeen Investments."}],[{"start":79.5,"text":"“Higher gilt yields mean less fiscal headroom, higher funding costs and presumably the pressure to cushion the move higher in energy costs for consumers,” he added."}],[{"start":90.15,"text":"Other European bond yields also rose on Tuesday. French 10-year yields were up 0.04 percentage points and Italian yields were up 0.06 percentage points."}],[{"start":101,"text":"The Iran conflict has pushed bond yields in the UK up more than its peers in Europe, putting extra strain on an economy that already has the highest borrowing costs in the G7 and where debt interest costs already exceed £100bn a year. "}],[{"start":115,"text":"Investors have been anxious that a shift to the left under Burnham could lead to more borrowing that would add to the UK’s fiscal squeeze, with uncertainty over his picks for key cabinet posts and his economic policies feeding nervousness in the market."}],[{"start":128.9,"text":"Current chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to make a last-minute pitch for a senior government role in her Mansion House speech to the City on Tuesday evening. "}],[{"start":136.70000000000002,"text":"However, it is widely expected that Reeves will not keep her job as chancellor, with current energy secretary Ed Miliband — who is viewed with caution by debt investors — seen as the frontrunner to succeed her."}],[{"start":149.4,"text":"Mark Dowding, chief investment officer for fixed income at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said gilts were likely to remain “on the back foot” in global markets because the risks were “skewed towards further fiscal slippage”."}],[{"start":163,"text":"The rebound in the oil price has prompted traders to move forward their expectations for higher interest rates in the UK, with one quarter-point rate rise now fully priced in by November this year. Last week, it was not expected to come until the first half of next year."}],[{"start":178.25,"text":"“The political risk is still hanging around in the gilt market, the inflation concerns have not gone away, and you still have quite a lot of long-dated [gilt issuance] coming,” said April Larusse, head of fixed-income specialists at Insight Investment."}],[{"start":192.5,"text":"Yields on two-year gilts, which tend to move more in line with changing interest rate expectations, jumped 0.05 percentage points on Tuesday to 4.43 per cent, adding to a 0.12 percentage point move on Monday. "}],[{"start":207.75,"text":"“Given the uncertainty of Andy Burnham coming into power this Friday and his likely choice of Ed Miliband as chancellor, it’s in UK rates where the pain may be focused this week,” said Jordan Rochester, head of fixed income strategy for Emea at Mizuho. "}],[{"start":224.25,"text":"Rochester said he was putting on a short bet against 10-year gilts, because “the resumption of war and decline in energy flows will . . . dominate for the next few [trading] sessions”, while the political uncertainty makes the UK especially vulnerable to that move. "}],[{"start":239.5,"text":"“Whilst the new chancellor is likely to try and give warm words of encouragement of sticking to the fiscal rules . . . markets are very aware the new administration may further down the line be tempted to change the rules,” Rochester said."}],[{"start":260.95,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1784031881_9515.mp3"}