{"text":[[{"start":8.65,"text":"Stocks of the world’s largest US private capital groups have fallen sharply this year, as they missed out on surging initial public offering and deal activity that drove shares of Wall Street banks to record highs."}],[{"start":21.25,"text":"Private capital giants have seen their shares slump by more than 15 per cent this year and by more than 20 per cent over the past 12 months, dramatically underperforming US stock markets that have gained double digits this year and other corners of Wall Street that have performed even better. "}],[{"start":39.4,"text":"Meanwhile, large investment banks Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan and Citigroup have risen by more than 18 per cent over the past 12 months, either matching or beating broader American markets. "}],[{"start":53.05,"text":"The underperformance of private capital’s most powerful players marks a dramatic reversal in their fortunes after groups like Blackstone and Apollo had seen their valuations soar over the past decade. "}],[{"start":65.2,"text":"The two firms and their rivals simplified their finances in 2019 in an effort to attract investment from index funds, and were viewed by investors as adopting business models that were growing faster and more resilient to sudden changes in financial markets than large banks."}],[{"start":82.6,"text":"“The alternative investment managers went from the hottest part of the financial sector, particularly when banks were out of favour,” said Devin Ryan, an analyst at Citizens Bank. “A rotation has happened.” "}],[{"start":94.1,"text":"At times over the past six years, Blackstone traded at a larger market value than both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, a remarkable ascent from a small partnership that listed in 2007 into a global giant with over $1tn in assets under management. Now Blackstone carries a market capitalisation that is less than half of either bank."}],[{"start":116.8,"text":"Large banks such as Goldman have seen profits soar in recent quarters amid a deregulatory push from US President Donald Trump and a boom in large mergers and public offerings. Earlier this month, the largest US investment banks reported their best financial results in over a decade, bolstered by the record-sized initial public offering of Elon Musk’s SpaceX and a flurry of other public offerings and megadeals."}],[{"start":142.35,"text":"Private capital groups, meanwhile, only have modest exposure to SpaceX and hot artificial intelligence start-ups expected to go public soon, and they saw their shares get pummelled earlier this year by rising redemptions at some of their largest credit funds. "}],[{"start":156.9,"text":"Investors have grown concerned that new AI technologies could disrupt the business models of the software and professional services companies that were the linchpin of the growth in private markets over the past decade. The redemptions have caused a slowdown in fundraising for some of the private capital industry’s fastest-growing and most lucrative funds, which had attracted hundreds of billions of dollars in new assets since 2021, causing industry-wide valuation multiples to fall significantly."}],[{"start":187.75,"text":"Meanwhile, some of Trump’s policies, such as his implementation of tariffs last year, made it harder for private equity funds to exit long-held deals that would help them quickly realise lucrative performance fees and raise new funds. Trump’s more recent war with Iran has also caused interest rates to remain stubbornly high, fuelling fears of credit distress among highly leveraged companies owned by PE groups. "}],[{"start":211.45,"text":"It has also led to fears of a prolonged downturn in deal activity that has already caused a logjam of ageing, unsold deals to reach a record $4tn. Analysts at Barclays warn the industry is “still lacking the true acceleration that markets have been waiting for”."}],[{"start":228.35,"text":"“Banks have been taking in a lot of the capital from financial investors since the 2024 election on the theme of a cyclical recovery in capital markets, looser regulation and heightened M&A activity,” said Citizens Bank’s Ryan."}],[{"start":241.15,"text":"Blackstone is scheduled to report second-quarter earnings on Thursday that could show its fundraising is stronger than investors expected due to new institutional investments. Investors also will be looking for signs that redemptions from credit funds are slowing and have not spilled over into other strategies. "}],[{"start":259.2,"text":"Still, some analysts expect the boom on Wall Street will broaden beyond large technology companies, which could eventually prompt a revival in private markets."}],[{"start":268.75,"text":"“A lot of what is driving the activity in banks and investment banks, which is in the early innings, is going to catch up and create a catalyst for the alternative manager business models,” says Ryan."}],[{"start":288.59999999999997,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1784714372_8429.mp3"}