{"text":[[{"start":5.34,"text":"Could Africa have too few people? The very idea might seem preposterous. On current trends, the combined population of its 54 countries will almost double to 2.5bn by 2050, by which time one quarter of humanity will be African."}],[{"start":21.9,"text":"As most of the world frets about declining birth rates, Africa, where women on average have roughly four children, is the only region where populations are rising fast. Yet in a continent with a median age of 19, many frustrated young people have been left to hustle for economic scraps in the informal sector. Surely the problem is too many people, not too few."}],[{"start":43.22,"text":"Yet there are compelling reasons to think that many of Africa’s problems stem from chronic underpopulation. In How Africa Works, a recent book, Joe Studwell, a development economist, concludes that the most important reason for the continent’s relative poverty has been low population density."}],[{"start":60.26,"text":"That, he says, is being righted thanks to several decades of fast growth. By 2030, its population density will finally be where Asia’s was circa 1960. What many see as an alarming population explosion, Studwell regards as “an extremely belated process of demographic normalisation”."}],[{"start":78.94,"text":"The argument deserves a serious hearing. First, just how sparsely populated is Africa? Even today, after decades of growth, its population, at 1.5bn, is roughly the same as India’s despite Africa having nine times the landmass."}],[{"start":94.26,"text":"Historically it was worse. The population was kept low by poor soil and diseases like malaria. Sleeping sickness killed domestic animals, suppressing crop yields by depriving farmers of labour and manure. The slave trade stripped Africa of more than 15mn of its youngest and fittest people. At the start of the 20th century, the continent’s population was less dense than that of England in 1066."}],[{"start":118.42,"text":"Infectious diseases and low food production also discouraged the formation of cities, the engines of economic growth. In 1900, Mombasa, with 30,000 people, was a huge African city."}],[{"start":130.22,"text":"Africa, wrote Joseph Ki-Zerbo, the late Burkinabé historian, was “prevented from reaching the threshold of demographic concentration which has almost always been one of the preconditions of major qualitative changes in the social, political and economic spheres”."}],[{"start":144.66,"text":"The population only began to normalise in the 20th century when advances in medicine sharply cut mortality rates. As a result, population growth rose from roughly 0.8 per cent in the 1930s to a peak of 2.9 per cent in the 1980s."}],[{"start":160.9,"text":"Africa’s historically sparse population, Studwell argues, deprived it of the concentrated markets and labour pools needed for development. Without “agglomeration economies” — the benefits that come from population density — it has been too expensive to provide the roads, electricity grids, schools and hospitals that any successful state needs."}],[{"start":180.82,"text":"As population density normalises, there are signs that some countries are starting to overcome this legacy. From a low base, there are widespread improvements in areas from higher crop yields and access to schools to availability of electricity."}],[{"start":195.18,"text":"Populations are becoming concentrated enough to achieve the economic growth that occurs most readily in towns and cities. For all the continent’s manifest problems, growth has picked up since the turn of the century."}],[{"start":206.78,"text":"Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to expand at 4.3 per cent this year, neck and neck with a slowing Asia. Some economies, like Ethiopia and Ivory Coast, have racked up 15 years of 7 per cent growth. Another generation of that and their fortunes could be transformed."}],[{"start":223.16,"text":"A history of too few people cannot explain everything, however. Even if sparse populations hold the key to many of Africa’s difficulties, there is no guarantee that greater concentrations of people will propel it forward. To win an Asia-style demographic dividend, with low future dependency ratios, birth rates would need to fall much faster."}],[{"start":242.9,"text":"For demographic benefits to accrue, governments also need good policies. Poor leadership, bad infrastructure, corruption and social upheaval could all blunt the prospects for economic take-off. Finally, there are concerns that Africa could have missed the boat. In an era of AI, the manufacturing path out of poverty may be swiftly closing."}],[{"start":263.24,"text":"Some African countries are likely to do poorly and others better than many expect. If you accept the premise that sparse populations have held the continent back, it is good news that Africa has finally reached the demographic starting line. It could surprise the naysayers yet."}],[{"start":278.64,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786432011_7357.mp3"}