US nuclear negotiator Ernest Moniz: ‘Iran has the home-court advantage’

{"text":[[{"start":0,"text":"I arrive early for my lunch at The Bombay Club, one of Washington’s power-dining establishments located just a stone’s throw from the White House."}],[{"start":15.38,"text":"A staff member points to photographs of George HW Bush and Bill Clinton, past presidents who have eaten at what GQ India considers one of the seven best foreign-based Indian restaurants, as he steers me through a dimly lit dining room to a private area behind a glass wall."}],[{"start":31.26,"text":"I’m here to meet Ernest Moniz, a nuclear physicist who served as US energy secretary under Barack Obama and was a key architect of the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and world powers: the US, the UK, Russia, Germany, France, China and the EU."}],[{"start":48.1,"text":"The carefully crafted 159-page agreement, which aimed to block Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, was implemented in January 2016 after nearly two years of negotiations. It did not last, even though international inspectors said Iran largely complied with its terms until the US withdrew."}],[{"start":66,"text":"Donald Trump pulled the US out of the agreement during his first term in office in May 2018, claiming it was a “horrible, one-sided deal” that enriched Tehran by providing sanctions relief and would not prevent it from developing a nuclear weapon. That decision put both countries on a course towards the current war, which erupted on February 28 and has caused a global economic shock, killed thousands of Iranians and risks sparking a regional nuclear arms race."}],[{"start":93.24,"text":"Moniz, who plays a leading role in two Washington-based think-tanks on energy and nuclear threats, is due to outline details of a proposal for a new era of nuclear energy co-operation in the Middle East at an Aspen Institute Congressional Program in Seward, Alaska, later this month. I’m eager to learn whether this could become a blueprint for a deal to end the Iran war, given the Trump administration’s struggles in negotiating with Tehran and last month’s signing of a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement, which some experts, including Moniz, warn lacks proper safeguards."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":124.88,"text":"As I ponder the menu, I hear a commotion as Moniz walks into the restaurant and begins chatting with staff members whom he clearly knows well from previous visits. The 81-year-old scientist is easily recognisable with his flowing silvery-grey hair, which television host Jon Stewart once joked made him look like one of America’s “actual founding fathers”."}],[{"start":147.6,"text":"“Over there, just by those plants, that was always my table,” he says, pointing to a corner of the restaurant where he regularly entertained Russian officials while discussing efforts to safeguard their nuclear arsenal following the dissolution of the USSR at the end of the cold war."}],[{"start":165.68,"text":"Those talks occurred when Moniz was under-secretary of energy under Clinton, but when Obama appointed him as energy secretary in 2013 it was the negotiations with Iran that consumed most of his time. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action set limits on Iran’s nuclear programme and imposed strict monitoring to verify compliance."}],[{"start":186.16,"text":"When asked if this year’s war would have happened if the JCPOA remained in place, Moniz is emphatic: “Oh, certainly not. It was the constraint that Iran have no more than 300 kilogrammes of enriched uranium and enriched to no more than 3.67 per cent. Instead, of course, they [now] have 10 tonnes of enriched uranium, including almost half a tonne of 60 per cent enriched uranium . . . so [by the time of the June 2025 bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites] they had the material for several bombs already,” he says."}],[{"start":217.92,"text":"Moniz warns that the stakes in the Iran conflict are exceptionally high for regional security, nuclear non-proliferation and American lives."}],[{"start":227.48,"text":"To illustrate his point, he flips through his mobile phone and finds a copy of a handwritten letter sent by the mother of an American pilot in the US Navy to Obama, secretary of state John Kerry and Moniz shortly after the Iran deal was signed. She thanks the three men for making it “much safer” for her son, who had been deployed in the region, by giving “diplomacy a chance”."}],[{"start":250.12,"text":"The current war, now in its sixth month, has so far claimed the lives of 18 US servicemen and women and wounded more than 600 personnel."}],[{"start":258.58,"text":"Before we dive into the details of the conflict, a waiter talks us through the menu. As an appetiser, Moniz suggests we share crispy kale chaat. For his main course he chooses a vegetable thali, which he explains is a complete meal served on a single platter. I plump for a seafood thali. We both order a Kingfisher beer to complement the spicy food. Moniz says that if it were after 5pm he would order a Bombay gin martini with a twist."}],[{"start":286.44,"text":"“After 5pm, that’s my principle and I never violate it,” he adds."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":290,"text":"Moniz grew up in Fall River, Massachusetts, a city where almost half the population claims Portuguese ancestry, mainly from the Azores Islands — home to his grandparents before they migrated to the US."}],[{"start":303.32,"text":"At school Moniz developed a love for physics, encouraged by an enthusiastic teacher. His father, who worked at the local Firestone rubber factory, urged him to pursue a college education and become an engineer."}],[{"start":315.32,"text":"“I’m a Sputnik product,” says Moniz, referring to the Soviet Union’s launch of the world’s first artificial satellite in 1957 — an event that shocked US policymakers into funding a space race that opened opportunities for students. Moniz was awarded a scholarship from his father’s labour union to study physics at Boston College."}],[{"start":335.6,"text":"After a doctorate in theoretical physics at Stanford University in California, he took a position at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he rose to become head of the physics department in 1991. Four years later, Moniz joined the Clinton administration as an adviser on science policy to the president."}],[{"start":353.48,"text":"America’s scientific leadership is now being challenged by China, and critics warn Trump’s “anti-science” agenda — slashing funding, restricting research on climate change and attacking the independence of universities and academics — risks accelerating its decline."}],[{"start":368.12,"text":"Moniz points to last month’s publication of Science: A New Golden Age, a report calling for a fundamental reform of academic funding drafted by White House science adviser Michael Kratsios. Kratsios was a controversial pick to lead the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy given his limited academic credentials — a Bachelor of Arts in political science and a certificate in Hellenic studies."}],[{"start":390.68,"text":"“This is very, very dangerous, and I don’t know how we get out of this . . . the undermining of the research university as an institution is very, very corrosive,” he says."}],[{"start":400.2,"text":"Moniz says the proliferation of social media has fuelled anti-expert views as people choose to listen to what they want to hear rather than arbiters who could synthesise information. “Walter Cronkite, where are you when we need you?” he asks."}],[{"start":414.08,"text":"As we talk, the waiter delivers a bowl of crispy kale, which is topped with a colourful collection of date-tamarind chutney, onion and yoghurt. We both grab mouthfuls of the tangy starter before I ask Moniz about another of the issues he worked on while in Obama’s cabinet: the Paris Agreement on climate that pledged to limit global average temperature rises to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels."}],[{"start":437.36,"text":"“I think it’s the extreme weather that is eventually going to be the tipping point for the United States actually to get a coherent policy,” says Moniz, referring to devastating wildfires that have swept across Europe, Canada and the US this summer. “I think we’re going to overshoot those [Paris] targets dramatically.”"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":455.08,"text":"Moniz predicts geoengineering solutions — such as firing aerosols into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight to reduce temperatures — will be required and governments need to fund research and regulate. There could be risky consequences that interfere with weather patterns and food production, says Moniz."}],[{"start":472.98,"text":"“Who decides? Does some rich guy like Elon Musk decide he is going to shoot some aerosols up and to hell with you? Or does the US decide and then Europe says it thinks that is a bad idea? We think these decisions require co-ordinated international programmes,” he says."}],[{"start":487.58,"text":"Moniz’s pro-climate credentials are challenged by green campaigners, who label him a “frackademic” for accepting funding from the oil industry and then co-authoring research such as a 2011 MIT report which argued that natural gas is a transitional bridging fuel."}],[{"start":502.36,"text":"“No one is going to deny the fact that most of the progress the US has made on the climate side has come from the switch from coal to gas,” he says when asked to justify his support for a fossil fuel."}],[{"start":512.94,"text":"But he is scathing about the Trump administration’s assault on renewable energy, which includes paying companies billions of dollars to halt offshore wind farms. The failure to adopt an energy strategy that includes renewables, gas and nuclear risks ceding the future of energy and artificial intelligence to China, he warns."}],[{"start":532.98,"text":"“The administration is making a terrible mistake . . . I can’t think of a single metric by which you would say that the US is ahead of China in the electron race,” he says."}],[{"start":542.9,"text":"When I mention that former president Joe Biden halted approvals for liquefied natural gas terminals, and that companies fear a Democratic victory in the 2028 presidential election could revive attacks on the industry, Moniz says an end to partisan policy is needed."}],[{"start":559.16,"text":"“The Democrats need to enlarge the space — ‘all of the above’, as opposed to saying no oil, no gas. The reality is we are the biggest oil and gas producers in the world. And furthermore, as closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shown . . . the world needs what we can deliver.”"}],[{"start":574.82,"text":"Our main courses arrive on two intricate silver platters, each with an assortment of curries and sauces and a bowl of naan bread."}],[{"start":582.34,"text":"“Great flavours,” says Moniz as he tucks into the vegetables, cheese and lentils on his platter. My thali is similar, though it has a small portion of grilled fish in the middle of the platter."}],[{"start":592.5,"text":"As I take a swig of Kingfisher, I ask Moniz about the chances of Trump securing a better deal with Iran than Obama achieved in 2015."}],[{"start":601.38,"text":"Moniz says he has never met Trump in person, despite appearing as a guest on the same episode of the Stephen Colbert television show with the then-aspiring presidential contender in 2015. During the programme, Trump signed a copy of his 1980s book Trump: The Art of the Deal, with the message “Dear Ernest, better luck next time”, a reference to the Iran deal that Moniz was promoting to the public and politicians."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":625.94,"text":"He breaks into a grin when asked about the Colbert incident, before adding that Trump’s decision to pursue all-out war with Iran was “a big mistake” and has placed the US in a cul-de-sac that will be hard to escape from."}],[{"start":638.7,"text":"“We’ll see how all this turns out but I think I’d like to send him a picture of that [signed book], since the next time it was his turn,” says Moniz, who jokes that Trump probably deserves the Nobel Peace Prize he craves so much because he has claimed to have ended the Iran war eight times already."}],[{"start":655.5,"text":"“Iran has the home-court advantage. And home-court advantages have not been working out so well for us in Vietnam and Afghanistan,” he says."}],[{"start":662.78,"text":"Rising petrol prices have caused Trump’s approval ratings to slump to record lows ahead of midterm elections in November, ratcheting up the pressure on the president to negotiate a deal. But Moniz thinks the odds are stacked against him."}],[{"start":676.42,"text":"“Trust is going to be a big issue and that’s one reason why I think it’s going to be very, very difficult to even get back to many of the provisions in the 2015 agreement, like verification,” he says."}],[{"start":686.74,"text":"Moniz helped get the 2015 Iran deal over the line by forging a close relationship with Ali Akbar Salehi, the then head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, and a former MIT student. In July 2025 Moniz wrote to Salehi on the 10th anniversary of the signing of the JCPOA deal. But the communication ceased when he told Salehi that Iran had made a “big mistake” by producing enough uranium enriched to levels just a step away from what is required to make multiple bombs if it chose — an action Moniz told him crossed a red line and that led to the bombing of the nation’s nuclear facilities by the US and Israel in 2025."}],[{"start":726.02,"text":"“You cross the line and shit happens,” says Moniz, adding that this “surgical strike” left open the possibility of negotiations with the Iranians. But the full-scale war launched by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in February made this much more difficult, he says."}],[{"start":742.18,"text":"Moniz says a narrow deal solely with Iran is unlikely to stick now. Instead, he proposes an alternative plan to create a regional nuclear energy fuel cycle, which would include Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Those states would only have a fuel supply chain together, not individually, limiting proliferation concerns."}],[{"start":759.9,"text":"“The idea is that you distribute this fuel cycle, most likely through a corporate entity. The analogue, which I have in my paper, is Urenco,” says Moniz, referring to the London-headquartered company that is owned one-third by the UK government, one-third by the Dutch government, and the final third equally by two major German utilities, Eon and RWE."}],[{"start":780.86,"text":"He says this would address concerns with the recent US-Saudi nuclear deal, which critics point out does not appear to have the strict independent verification rules that were contained in the 2015 Iran deal to address proliferation concerns. In particular, an “additional protocol”, which enabled inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency access to any facility, declared or undeclared, at short notice to ensure Tehran’s compliance."}],[{"start":806.02,"text":"“Frankly, an agreement of no enrichment without verification is kind of meaningless,” he says."}],[{"start":811.38,"text":"Moniz, who is a board member of the Nuclear Threat Initiative — a think-tank aimed at reducing the risk to humanity from nuclear, biological and other technologies — warns that the threat of nuclear war or an incident is now higher than at any time since the Cuban missile crisis in the 1960s. He cites Russia and Ukraine, the Middle East, India and Pakistan, and North Korea as the main threats."}],[{"start":834.6,"text":"International collaboration is vitally important in solving non-proliferation and climate issues, according to Moniz, but the huge shifts in policy under the Trump administration and the growing trend towards partisan politics make finding solutions difficult."}],[{"start":847.58,"text":"“Now we’re on a rollercoaster and the rollercoaster and the uncertainty it breeds is killing us in so many ways,” says Moniz."}],[{"start":855.1,"text":"As I pay the bill, I ask Moniz whether a Democratic victory in the 2028 presidential election would enable the US to win back the trust of its European and Asian allies and forge consensus in tackling global challenges."}],[{"start":867.74,"text":"“I don’t think it’ll be possible . . . no matter who wins in 2028, because you still don’t know if it’s just going to be an oscillatory behaviour. You need two, three presidents in a row who have stable views,” he says. “This yo-yo started really with Trump’s win [in 2016] and it’s not going to play out until 2040 at least, in my view.”"}],[{"start":890.66,"text":"Jamie Smyth is the FT’s US energy editor"}],[{"start":893.902,"text":"Find out about our latest stories first — follow FT Weekend on Instagram, Bluesky and X, and sign up to receive the FT Weekend newsletter every Saturday morning"}],[{"start":909.58,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1786843828_8604.mp3"}