US grain farmers face worst crisis in decades as Iran war sends costs spiralling

{"text":[[{"start":10.32,"text":"Farmers in America’s Corn Belt say they are facing their worst crisis in 40 years, as an explosion in diesel and fertiliser costs triggered by Donald Trump’s Iran war pushes grain producers to the brink."}],[{"start":22.08,"text":"The growing strains are the latest sign of how the conflict in the Middle East, now in its sixth month, is reverberating through the US’s heartland ahead of crucial midterm elections that will determine control of Congress."}],[{"start":33.4,"text":"“Inputs are way out of whack,” said Matt Bailey, who grows corn and soyabeans in eastern Nebraska. He said 11-52-0, a phosphorus-rich fertiliser used at planting time that was priced at $470 a ton 10 years ago, now costs more than $900. “Where do you start with that? How do you budget for that?”"}],[{"start":54.04,"text":"The huge uptick in prices for fuel and crop nutrients since the US launched its attack on Iran in February came with American farmers already struggling after years of low grain prices and falling incomes."}],[{"start":66.48,"text":"Many also see themselves as casualties of Trump’s trade wars, which they say have hurt US agricultural exports, particularly soyabean sales to China."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":74.56,"text":"“This is the worst financial downturn in the sector since the 1980s,” said John Hansen, president of Nebraska Farmers Union."}],[{"start":82.76,"text":"A recent study by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an industry group, found that, without government assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops — including corn — will lose $31bn this year and $32bn in 2027."}],[{"start":97.6,"text":"Faith Parum, an economist with the AFBF, said losses for corn producers would stand at $131 per acre this year, rising to $167 in 2027. For soyabeans, the figure is $80 per acre in losses this year and $138 next year. She said 2027 would mark the sixth year of negative returns for most major row crops in the US."}],[{"start":122,"text":"The struggles for Midwestern farmers show how concerns over affordability, the inflationary impact of the Iran war and the adverse effects of Trump’s tariffs are reaching greater swaths of the US population — from working-class families in big cities to rural communities in the heartlands."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":138.196,"text":"A recent FT poll found that more than 53 per cent of registered voters said their finances had deteriorated since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, a result that could spell trouble for Republican hopes of retaining control of Congress."}],[{"start":154.24,"text":"“We’ve got 71 days [until the midterm elections] and right now we don’t have a positive message to sell farm country, and we haven’t since ‘liberation day’ last year,” the Republican senator Thom Tillis said on Monday."}],[{"start":183.6,"text":"Trump has vowed to support farmers, saying in June that “we’re never going to let you down”. In the same month his administration requested an $11bn funding package for farmers that would provide emergency assistance to row crop and speciality crop producers. But farming groups say it is not enough."}],[{"start":186.28,"text":"Some of his attempts to tackle rising food prices have triggered a backlash from the agricultural sector. Last week he enraged cattle farmers by announcing a 90-day waiver of tariffs on up to 300,000 tonnes of beef imports, a move some ranchers called a “betrayal”."}],[{"start":202.68,"text":"But many farmers say it is Trump’s war in Iran that has had the most sweeping effect on their businesses. The sharp slowdown in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up the price of diesel and disrupted the global supply of fertiliser, which had already surged in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":221.36,"text":"“The [Iran] war has made so much uncertainty for us as farmers,” said Pam Johnson, who farms in northern Iowa and is a former president of the National Corn Growers Association. “It’s projected that farmers aren’t going to make any money for the next two years.”"}],[{"start":236.12,"text":"The average cost for diesel — widely used to power agricultural equipment — has shot up to $5.45 a gallon nationwide, compared with $3.81 before the war, according to the US Energy Information Administration."}],[{"start":250.9,"text":"Interest payments, labour costs and the price of farm machinery had also increased, said Brad Lubben, a professor of agricultural economics at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln."}],[{"start":261.26,"text":"“If you look at all the components of the production budget, most of them have gone up substantially over the past few years,” he said."}],[{"start":268.96,"text":"Drought and hot, dry conditions across the US corn belt have compounded some farmers’ woes."}],[{"start":275.52,"text":"John Dittrich, who grows corn and soyabeans near Meadow Grove, Nebraska, said extreme weather was a growing problem."}],[{"start":282.28,"text":"“Our droughts are worse, our heavy rainfall events are worse, our winds are worse,” he said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":288.48,"text":"He said the risk to his business from weather events and rising costs was now “higher than it’s ever been in my 44-year career”."}],[{"start":296.4,"text":"“Our costs of production are very high and then the instability and the unknowns of every variable that affects both our production and the prices we receive for our commodities are just unprecedented.”"}],[{"start":307.92,"text":"The weather is helping to push up corn prices, as traders pare back expectations for the 2026 harvest. US corn for delivery in December has already jumped 10 per cent this month to $5.15 a bushel, the highest level since 2023."}],[{"start":323.82,"text":"With the price of other commodities such as soyabeans and wheat also rallying in recent days, experts fear that this could push up inflation, already running above the US Federal Reserve’s 2 per cent target."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":334.4,"text":"“This will definitely mean higher food prices,” said Brian Choi, chief executive of the Food Institute, a research organisation. With corn prices rising almost 20 per cent this year, “it will eventually make its way to the consumer”."}],[{"start":348.28,"text":"Nebraska is among the states hit hardest by the drought. From January to July, it received 11.86 inches of precipitation — about 3.1 inches below normal. That made it the 18th-driest January-July period since records began in 1895."}],[{"start":363.88,"text":"“I’ve got some good friends on the Sandhills [a vast area of north-central and western Nebraska] that haven’t hardly gotten any rain since last fall,” said Del Ficke, a cattle farmer in Pleasant Dale, Nebraska."}],[{"start":375.92,"text":"Recent rainfall provided some relief but came too late for many farmers. “A lot of damage [to the crop] has already been done,” said Hansen of the Nebraska Farmers Union. “It’s like closing the stable door after the horse has bolted.”"}],[{"start":388.56,"text":"Bailey said the poor weather would probably affect his yields this year. “Because of all the early-season stress that happened, I don’t see it being a bin-buster, by any means,” he said. “Especially if you factor in all the dry land . . . that just didn’t get the water and got beat to crap for six weeks.”"}],[{"start":411.2,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1787641303_6672.mp3"}