{"text":[[{"start":8.12,"text":"Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh has signalled that hotter-than-anticipated inflation has not swayed his views on the US economy, prompting traders to further scale back bets on a rate rise this month."}],[{"start":20.8,"text":"Speaking at an IMF summit in Bangkok on Friday, Warsh said he would not “prejudge” his plans for the US central bank’s next policy vote but added that economic conditions were “broadly” in line with what rate-setters anticipated when they raised borrowing costs for the first time in three years in September."}],[{"start":38.92,"text":"“We came to a judgment — what are we seeing in the global economy as it affects the US?” Warsh said. “I’m going to say, broadly, over the month or so that’s transpired since then, the world has broadly conformed with our expectations.”"}],[{"start":55.04,"text":"Expectations for what the Fed officials will do at their October 28 meeting have swung sharply this week. Bets on a rate increase climbed to as high as 55 per cent following stronger than expected US inflation figures on Wednesday before edging back."}],[{"start":69.88,"text":"They fell further after Warsh’s comments, declining from around 27 per cent to around 15 per cent on Friday, according to Fed funds futures."}],[{"start":79.52,"text":"“Alongside other recent comments from FOMC participants, Warsh’s comments indicate that the FOMC is set to pause in October,” economists at Goldman Sachs noted, adding they expect officials to raise rates at the Fed’s final meeting of the year in early December."}],[{"start":95.648,"text":"The US dollar slipped 0.1 per cent against a basket of key trading partners following Warsh’s comments, while S&P 500 futures rose 0.3 per cent."}],[{"start":105.96,"text":"Warsh’s remarks came after US inflation rose to 3.7 per cent September, surpassing forecasts, amid increases in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war. Data published on Wednesday also showed that core prices — which strip out volatile changes in food and energy goods — rose to 2.6 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in August."}],[{"start":127.56,"text":"Warsh on Friday refused to say explicitly how the central bank would respond at its meeting this month."}],[{"start":135.36,"text":"“I don’t prejudge meetings,” he said. “I don’t believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.”"}],[{"start":140.24,"text":"The Fed chair has sought to cut back on “forward guidance” for future interest rate moves. “We’re not in that business any more,” he said."}],[{"start":147.68,"text":"Fed officials signalled in September that they only planned one additional rate rise before the end of the year."}],[{"start":153.48,"text":"The Fed raised its federal funds target range in September for the first time since July 2023, leaving the benchmark short-term rate with a band of 3.75 to 4 per cent."}],[{"start":165.28,"text":"The increase came despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to slash borrowing costs. Most economists think lower rates would place the US economy at risk of overheating and stoke price pressures."}],[{"start":177.32,"text":"Warsh signalled that he remained concerned about high inflation, saying central banks in the US and elsewhere recognised that price pressures were uncomfortably strong."}],[{"start":185.8,"text":"“It’s hard to be in a discussion of the central bankers and not compare notes and hear the same thing about the surge in prices,” Warsh said."}],[{"start":194.52,"text":"San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly, a non-voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, told Reuters on Wednesday that, while further rate rises were “more likely than not”, the timing of further increases was not “urgent”."}],[{"start":207.04,"text":"“I think we have the time that we need,” Daly said in remarks made after the publication of the September CPI data."}],[{"start":214.24,"text":"Other senior FOMC officials, including vice-chair and New York Fed president John Williams and vice-chair for monetary policy Philip Jefferson, have signalled they believe they can be patient and wait to raise borrowing costs for a second time."}],[{"start":227.52,"text":"Additional reporting by William Sandlund in Hong Kong"}],[{"start":234.72,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1792139197_5478.mp3"}