European gas prices jump above €100 on fears of Iran war escalation

{"text":[[{"start":9.2,"text":"European gas prices have surged above €100 a megawatt hour for the first time in almost four years as markets brace for renewed US strikes on Iran and a possible cold snap in Europe."}],[{"start":21.16,"text":"Dutch natural gas for delivery in November jumped 5 per cent to €100.95 per MWh on Wednesday, a level last touched in December 2022 during the European energy crisis that followed Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It later dipped back just below €100."}],[{"start":39.92,"text":"President Donald Trump has indicated that the US may strike Iran after the midterm elections on November 3, raising expectations of a further curtailment of liquefied natural gas shipments from the Middle East."}],[{"start":51.28,"text":"The US has told several Gulf Arab countries to be prepared for a short, intense military campaign against Iran after next week’s midterms, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday."}],[{"start":62.04,"text":"Traders are also weighing the impact of a wide range of weather forecasts, including predictions of a much cooler winter than usual, driving demand for gas as people use more to heat their homes."}],[{"start":72.76,"text":"This would push up consumption at the start of Europe’s peak demand season, at a time when its gas storage facilities are emptier than usual."}],[{"start":null,"text":"

"}],[{"start":79.92,"text":"LNG exports from Qatar, one of the world’s biggest suppliers, are likely to be lower in November and December because of an escalation in the Iran war following the midterms, consultancy Energy Aspects said in a note."}],[{"start":93.12,"text":"Benchmark gas prices have gained 39 per cent this month, with prices for delivery after November also rising. The price for gas delivered in December implies that traders see a 73 per cent probability of a shortage of Middle Eastern LNG supplies this winter, up from 51 per cent last week."}],[{"start":110.54,"text":"At the same time, traders are weighing the chances that temperatures will be lower than usual in Europe this winter."}],[{"start":116.84,"text":"Forecasters have warned of a potential “sudden stratospheric warming” — a major meteorological event involving a rapid rise in temperatures high in the polar stratosphere — that could drive a blast of cold Arctic air into northern Europe in November."}],[{"start":129.04,"text":"“Nobody really knows how cold or warm the [European] winter is going to be. I’m getting a lot of different assumptions,” said Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a gas expert at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy."}],[{"start":140.26,"text":"In the face of uncertainty, traders have turned to the options market to hedge their positions. The number of actively trading Dutch gas options on the Intercontinental Exchange reached 3.1mn contracts on Monday, the most since trading began in 2013."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":156.8,"text":"While prices are soaring across Europe, US prices fell to their lowest in almost two years this week amid warmer than usual near-term weather forecasts."}],[{"start":166.16,"text":"With the US a major global supplier of LNG, low prices there should be good news for Europe. However, the amount that can be exported from the US is capped by liquefaction capacity. Record-high shipping costs also add significantly to the price of LNG imports."}],[{"start":182.68,"text":"The price of LNG delivered into north-west Europe hit $31.16 per million British thermal units on Monday, almost three times the level before the Iran war and its highest since December 15, 2022, according to price assessments by Spark Commodities."}],[{"start":199.76,"text":"European gas prices have also almost trebled since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February. After nearly eight months of conflict, analysts say Europe’s gas system has few buffers left."}],[{"start":210.76,"text":"“The whole system has been really resilient but now we are really touching the limits of that resilience,” Corbeau said."}],[{"start":222.72,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793240476_3361.mp3"}