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{"text":[[{"start":10.968,"text":"US stocks have chalked up gains in the six months following midterm elections for more than 70 years. But investors warn that the streak could snap after Tuesday’s vote, as AI jitters and soaring oil prices darken the outlook."}],[{"start":25.08,"text":"An investor who bought US stocks at the last close of trading before any Congressional midterm election in more than 75 years would have made money over the next six or 12 months: the last time it declined was in 1946. This is not simply a seasonal anomaly; over the same six- and 12-month windows in other years since 1950, the index fell roughly a third of the time."}],[{"start":49.52,"text":"Analysts say the pattern is partly a result of pre-election uncertainty that weighs on markets ahead of the vote, and is lifted once it has passed. But with equity markets sitting on double-digit gains this year — despite the recent tech sell-off on Wall Street — and a long list of investor worries, some fund managers say the streak could end."}],[{"start":null,"text":"
"}],[{"start":68.8,"text":"“This year could be different,” said Laura Cooper, head of macro credit at Nuveen. “[Stocks] have already run up quite a bit and the market is facing significant headwinds going into next year.”"}],[{"start":80.06,"text":"Oil prices last week rose back to levels not seen since April amid speculation that Donald Trump intends to step up the US military campaign against Iran after the vote."}],[{"start":89.12,"text":"“We see a high risk of Trump restarting the bombing campaign after midterms,” said Mohit Kumar, an economist at Jefferies, who pointed to the period between the elections and the start of January when “there is no effective Congress” as a period when escalation could be likely."}],[{"start":103.68,"text":"This was driving the firm’s “cautious” stance on risky assets in the near term, Kumar said."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":109.6,"text":"Strong stock market performance after midterms tends to follow a weak run-up to the election. In midterm years since 1942, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 18 per cent from peak to trough within the year, according to FT analysis."}],[{"start":124.4,"text":"The 2026 run-up has been anything but weak. The S&P 500’s deepest fall in 2026 was 9 per cent, just half the midterm average."}],[{"start":133.36,"text":"Jordan Jackson, a global market strategist at JPMorgan, put the pattern of post-election strength down to fading uncertainty. “Markets don’t like uncertainty, and elections breed uncertainty,” he wrote. “Thereafter, markets gain clarity on the political configuration going forward and refocus on the fundamentals and policies, which matter most for markets.”"}],[{"start":156.84,"text":"This year, the set-up for after the election might not be so strong. October was a volatile month on Wall Street, with tech stocks selling off sharply as investors fear that AI returns will not justify the enormous investment in the technology — a downturn many worry has further to run. Third-quarter earnings have so far failed to soothe those worries."}],[{"start":178.68,"text":"There is another striking difference between this year and previous midterms: valuations. US stocks have never been this expensive heading into a midterm election. The S&P 500’s much-quoted cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio stands at 40.7, well above the previous midterm high of 33.8 in October 1998, according to FT analysis of Robert Shiller’s data."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":203.74,"text":"The ratio has averaged about 20 since 1942. In the eight earlier midterm years when it was above that level, six-month gains averaged little more than half those in the other 13."}],[{"start":214.94,"text":"This year’s gains have also been concentrated in a handful of companies. Just five stocks accounted for more than half the S&P 500’s return in the first nine months of 2026, according to investment manager DoubleLine Capital, leaving the index vulnerable if a few big names stumble."}],[{"start":232.66,"text":"Then there is politics, which could take the shine off this streak."}],[{"start":236.56,"text":"Since 1951, the S&P 500 has delivered an average annual return of 13.7 per cent under a Republican president and a split Congress, according to Carson Investment Research. That compares with just 4.9 per cent when Democrats have controlled both the House and Senate under a Republican president."}],[{"start":null,"text":""}],[{"start":256.08,"text":"One possible explanation for the stronger returns under a split Congress is that gridlock makes sweeping legislation harder to pass. “Fewer big policy swings can mean fewer market disruptions,” Monica Guerra, head of policy and geopolitical strategy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in September."}],[{"start":272.44,"text":"Prediction and betting markets suggest the Democrats are likely to win the House, leaving the Senate as the deciding factor. If Republicans hold on to it, Congress would be split, historically associated with stronger returns under a Republican president. If Democrats win both chambers, the record has been much weaker."}],[{"start":298.27,"text":""}]],"url":"https://audio.ftcn.net.cn/album/a_1793610434_1456.mp3"}