There’s one good reason oil prices have never roared quite as loudly as they could have during the Strait of Hormuz crisis: China. The People’s Republic slashed its imports of crude oil and drew from its huge stockpiles. Now, though, it’s diesel that’s in short supply, sending shockwaves through the economies of the US and Europe. Could China ride to the rescue again?
霍尔木兹海峡危机期间，油价之所以未曾出现本来可能出现的剧烈飙升，有一个重要原因：中国。中国大幅削减了原油进口，并动用了其庞大的库存。然而，如今是柴油供应短缺，这给欧美经济带来了巨大冲击。中国能再次出手相救吗？
In theory, yes it could. The reason diesel is in short supply globally is because facilities that are available to refine crude oil into the preferred fuel for trucks, buses and trains are already running at full tilt. Many Russian refineries, formerly outsized producers of diesel, have been taken offline owing to attacks by Ukraine.
理论上是可以的。全球柴油短缺的原因在于，那些能将原油提炼成卡车、公交车和火车所需柴油的炼油设施，目前已处于满负荷运转状态。许多俄罗斯炼油厂——此前曾是柴油生产的主力军——因遭乌克兰袭击而被迫停产。
China, though, has ample spare capacity. Even before the US began its war with Iran, China had more refineries than it needed to supply its own domestic needs of oil-derived products. Its cuts to crude imports and product exports have left many plants half idle; in aggregate the 13mn barrels a day they are producing is 2.3mn barrels fewer than last February, WoodMackenzie estimates.
而中国拥有充足的闲置产能。早在美伊冲突爆发前，中国的炼油产能就已超过了国内对石油衍生品的需求。由于削减了原油进口和成品油出口，许多炼油厂处于半闲置状态；据伍德麦肯兹(WoodMackenzie)估算，中国炼油厂目前的总日产量为1300万桶，比2月减少了230万桶。